Player props
Every prop, one board
Every player prop posted for the next few days, next to our projection. The over chance follows the book's own number with its margin removed, which was the more accurate one in every league; lines where our model disagrees by 10+ points are tagged with how such lines have done. Not betting advice.
Lines posted
391
11 games · DraftKings
Model disagrees
0
by 10+ points against the price
Past disagreements
−1.9%
a bet · 4,421 graded lines, 51% won
Logged before games
—
Logging starts with the next games
| Player | Stat | Proj | L5 | Line | L10 | Over | Model | Parlay |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.J. McCarthyNYG · WSH @ NYG · | Pass+Rush yds | 252.0▲ 18.5 above the line | 215.0 | 233.5 | 4/10 games over this line | 50%* | 52% | |
| Jayden DanielsWSH · WSH @ NYG · | Pass+Rush yds | 241.0▲ 0.5 above the line | 261.2 | 240.5 | 4/10 games over this line | 49%* | 45% | |
| J.J. McCarthyNYG · WSH @ NYG · | Pass yds | 237.2▲ 26.7 above the line | 201.0 | 210.5 | 4/10 games over this line | 50%* | 54% | |
| Jayden DanielsWSH · WSH @ NYG · | Pass yds | 204.9▲ 4.4 above the line | 217.0 | 200.5 | 4/10 games over this line | 50%* | 45% | |
| Malik NabersNYG · WSH @ NYG · | Rec yds | 79.4▲ 12.9 above the line | 110.4 | 66.5 | 5/8 games over this line | 51%* | 56% | |
| Rachaad WhiteWSH · WSH @ NYG · | Rush+Rec yds | 56.4▼ 0.1 below the line | 49.4 | 56.5 | 5/10 games over this line | 49%* | 42% | |
| Isaiah LikelyNYG · WSH @ NYG · | Rec yds | 51.3▲ 3.8 above the line | 64.8 | 47.5 | 5/10 games over this line | 50%* | 46% | |
| Devin SingletaryNYG · WSH @ NYG · | Rush+Rec yds | 50.5▲ 14.0 above the line | 34.8 | 36.5 | 6/10 games over this line | 51%* | 59% | |
| Austin EkelerWSH · WSH @ NYG · | Rush+Rec yds | 44.1▲ 5.6 above the line | 26.2 | 38.5 | 1/5 games over this line | 50%* | 48% | |
| Stefon DiggsWSH · WSH @ NYG · | Rec yds | 41.5at the line | 40.2 | 41.5 | 4/10 games over this line | 49%* | 41% | |
| Rachaad WhiteWSH · WSH @ NYG · | Rush yds | 38.8▲ 0.3 above the line | 32.6 | 38.5 | 3/10 games over this line | 49%* | 41% | |
| Devin SingletaryNYG · WSH @ NYG · | Rush yds | 37.2▲ 13.7 above the line | 22.2 | 23.5 | 6/10 games over this line | 51%* | 64% | |
| Malachi FieldsNYG · WSH @ NYG · | Rec yds | 36.2▲ 9.7 above the line | 42.8 | 26.5 | 4/8 games over this line | 50%* | 55% | |
| Jayden DanielsWSH · WSH @ NYG · | Rush yds | 36.1▲ 0.6 above the line | 44.2 | 35.5 | 4/10 games over this line | 49%* | 42% | |
| Chig OkonkwoWSH · WSH @ NYG · | Rec yds | 35.4▼ 0.1 below the line | 44.4 | 35.5 | 5/10 games over this line | 49%* | 40% | |
| Antonio WilliamsWSH · WSH @ NYG · | Rec yds | 33.1▼ 6.4 below the line | 36.2 | 39.5 | 3/8 games over this line | 48%* | 31% | |
| J.J. McCarthyNYG · WSH @ NYG · | Pass att | 32.3▲ 0.8 above the line | 22.8 | 31.5 | 2/10 games over this line | 50%* | 50% | |
| Jayden DanielsWSH · WSH @ NYG · | Pass att | 30.9▼ 0.6 below the line | 29.2 | 31.5 | 3/10 games over this line | 49%* | 44% | |
| Austin EkelerWSH · WSH @ NYG · | Rush yds | 28.4▲ 0.9 above the line | 16.6 | 27.5 | 2/5 games over this line | 49%* | 41% | |
| Darnell MooneyNYG · WSH @ NYG · | Rec yds | 24.3▲ 8.8 above the line | 14.4 | 15.5 | 6/10 games over this line | 50%* | 55% | |
| J.J. McCarthyNYG · WSH @ NYG · | Completions | 20.4▲ 1.9 above the line | 14.3 | 18.5 | 2/10 games over this line | 51%* | 56% | |
| Jayden DanielsWSH · WSH @ NYG · | Completions | 19.8▲ 0.3 above the line | 19.4 | 19.5 | 2/10 games over this line | 50%* | 47% | |
| Rachaad WhiteWSH · WSH @ NYG · | Rec yds | 17.6▲ 4.1 above the line | 16.8 | 13.5 | 5/10 games over this line | 49%* | 44% | |
| Austin EkelerWSH · WSH @ NYG · | Rec yds | 15.8▲ 8.3 above the line | 9.6 | 7.5 | 3/5 games over this line | 51%* | 56% | |
| J.J. McCarthyNYG · WSH @ NYG · | Rush yds | 14.8▼ 3.7 below the line | 11.6 | 18.5 | 5/10 games over this line | 48%* | 28% | |
| Devin SingletaryNYG · WSH @ NYG · | Rec yds | 13.3▲ 4.8 above the line | 12.6 | 8.5 | 5/10 games over this line | 50%* | 46% | |
| Devin SingletaryNYG · WSH @ NYG · | Carries | 11.1▲ 3.6 above the line | 7.8 | 7.5 | 5/10 games over this line | 52%* | 72% | |
| Rachaad WhiteWSH · WSH @ NYG · | Carries | 9.5▼ 1.0 below the line | 8.0 | 10.5 | 1/10 games over this line | 49%* | 37% | |
| Austin EkelerWSH · WSH @ NYG · | Carries | 8.3▲ 0.8 above the line | 4.8 | 7.5 | 2/5 games over this line | 50%* | 51% | |
| Jayden DanielsWSH · WSH @ NYG · | Carries | 6.5at the line | 5.2 | 6.5 | 5/10 games over this line | 49%* | 43% | |
| Malik NabersNYG · WSH @ NYG · | Receptions | 6.4▲ 0.9 above the line | 8.2 | 5.5 | 5/8 games over this line | 51%* | 58% | |
| Isaiah LikelyNYG · WSH @ NYG · | Receptions | 4.8▲ 0.3 above the line | 6.2 | 4.5 | 6/10 games over this line | 50%* | 51% | |
| Stefon DiggsWSH · WSH @ NYG · | Receptions | 4.0▼ 0.5 below the line | 4.2 | 4.5 | 3/10 games over this line | 49%* | 37% | |
| Chig OkonkwoWSH · WSH @ NYG · | Receptions | 3.6▲ 0.1 above the line | 4.2 | 3.5 | 5/10 games over this line | 50%* | 47% | |
| Antonio WilliamsWSH · WSH @ NYG · | Receptions | 3.2▼ 0.3 below the line | 3.4 | 3.5 | 2/8 games over this line | 49%* | 40% | |
| Malachi FieldsNYG · WSH @ NYG · | Receptions | 2.6▲ 0.1 above the line | 2.6 | 2.5 | 2/8 games over this line | 50%* | 46% | |
| Rachaad WhiteWSH · WSH @ NYG · | Receptions | 2.2▼ 0.3 below the line | 2.0 | 2.5 | 2/10 games over this line | 49%* | 36% | |
| Darnell MooneyNYG · WSH @ NYG · | Receptions | 1.9▲ 0.4 above the line | 1.2 | 1.5 | 7/10 games over this line | 50%* | 53% | |
| Austin EkelerWSH · WSH @ NYG · | Receptions | 1.9▲ 0.4 above the line | 1.2 | 1.5 | 2/5 games over this line | 50%* | 52% | |
| Devin SingletaryNYG · WSH @ NYG · | Receptions | 1.6▲ 0.1 above the line | 2.0 | 1.5 | 5/10 games over this line | 49%* | 44% | |
| J.J. McCarthyNYG · WSH @ NYG · | Pass TDs | 1.3▼ 0.2 below the line | 0.3 | 1.5 | 2/10 games over this line | 49%* | 36% | |
| Jayden DanielsWSH · WSH @ NYG · | Pass TDs | 1.3▼ 0.2 below the line | 1.0 | 1.5 | 3/10 games over this line | 48%* | 34% | |
| J.J. McCarthyNYG · WSH @ NYG · | Interceptions | 0.8▲ 0.3 above the line | 0.3 | 0.5 | 6/10 games over this line | 49%* | 43% | |
| Jayden DanielsWSH · WSH @ NYG · | Interceptions | 0.5at the line | 0.0 | 0.5 | 3/10 games over this line | 48%* | 30% | |
| Jared GoffDET · NE @ DET · | Pass+Rush yds | 256.0▼ 15.5 below the line | 267.4 | 271.5 | 6/10 games over this line | 49%* | 39% | |
| Jared GoffDET · NE @ DET · | Pass yds | 250.7▼ 16.8 below the line | 266.4 | 267.5 | 6/10 games over this line | 49%* | 38% | |
| Drake MayeNE · NE @ DET · | Pass yds | 237.4▼ 24.1 below the line | 285.6 | 261.5 | 5/10 games over this line | 49%* | 36% | |
| Jahmyr GibbsDET · NE @ DET · | Rush+Rec yds | 122.5▼ 12.0 below the line | 133.8 | 134.5 | 5/10 games over this line | 49%* | 36% | |
| Jahmyr GibbsDET · NE @ DET · | Rush yds | 91.3▼ 7.2 below the line | 108.0 | 98.5 | 5/10 games over this line | 49%* | 38% | |
| Amon-Ra St. BrownDET · NE @ DET · | Rec yds | 77.0▼ 1.5 below the line | 85.8 | 78.5 | 4/10 games over this line | 49%* | 42% | |
| Jameson WilliamsDET · NE @ DET · | Rec yds | 54.0▼ 1.5 below the line | 68.2 | 55.5 | 4/10 games over this line | 49%* | 40% | |
| Corey KinerNE · NE @ DET · | Rush yds | 49.5▼ 2.0 below the line | 43.0 | 51.5 | 3/10 games over this line | 49%* | 40% | |
| Sam LaPortaDET · NE @ DET · | Rec yds | 45.4▲ 1.9 above the line | 51.0 | 43.5 | 7/10 games over this line | 49%* | 43% | |
| Jared GoffDET · NE @ DET · | Pass att | 34.5at the line | 32.8 | 34.5 | 4/10 games over this line | 50%* | 47% | |
| Jahmyr GibbsDET · NE @ DET · | Rec yds | 31.3▲ 0.8 above the line | 25.8 | 30.5 | 5/10 games over this line | 49%* | 40% | |
| Drake MayeNE · NE @ DET · | Pass att | 30.7▼ 2.8 below the line | 31.0 | 33.5 | 4/10 games over this line | 49%* | 36% | |
| Jared GoffDET · NE @ DET · | Completions | 22.6▲ 0.1 above the line | 21.6 | 22.5 | 5/10 games over this line | 50%* | 46% | |
| Drake MayeNE · NE @ DET · | Rush yds | 22.2▼ 4.3 below the line | 16.6 | 26.5 | 3/10 games over this line | 48%* | 31% | |
| Isaac TeSlaaDET · NE @ DET · | Rec yds | 21.3▲ 3.8 above the line | 36.0 | 17.5 | 6/10 games over this line | 49%* | 44% | |
| Drake MayeNE · NE @ DET · | Completions | 19.8▼ 1.7 below the line | 21.0 | 21.5 | 5/10 games over this line | 49%* | 38% | |
| Jahmyr GibbsDET · NE @ DET · | Carries | 19.7▼ 0.8 below the line | 22.4 | 20.5 | 4/10 games over this line | 49%* | 42% | |
| Sione VakiDET · NE @ DET · | Rush yds | 14.8▲ 1.3 above the line | 19.0 | 13.5 | 3/9 games over this line | 49%* | 39% | |
| Corey KinerNE · NE @ DET · | Carries | 9.7▼ 3.8 below the line | 7.2 | 13.5 | 0/10 games over this line | 47%* | 21% | |
| Amon-Ra St. BrownDET · NE @ DET · | Receptions | 7.0▼ 0.5 below the line | 7.6 | 7.5 | 7/10 games over this line | 49%* | 39% | |
| Jared GoffDET · NE @ DET · | Rush yds | 5.3▲ 4.8 above the line | 1.3 | 0.5 | 6/10 games over this line | 51%* | 59% | |
| Drake MayeNE · NE @ DET · | Carries | 5.0▲ 0.5 above the line | 4.8 | 4.5 | 5/10 games over this line | 50%* | 48% | |
| Sam LaPortaDET · NE @ DET · | Receptions | 4.0▼ 0.5 below the line | 4.2 | 4.5 | 6/10 games over this line | 49%* | 37% | |
| Jahmyr GibbsDET · NE @ DET · | Receptions | 3.6▼ 0.9 below the line | 3.2 | 4.5 | 5/10 games over this line | 48%* | 30% | |
| Jameson WilliamsDET · NE @ DET · | Receptions | 3.5at the line | 3.6 | 3.5 | 6/10 games over this line | 49%* | 44% | |
| Drake MayeNE · NE @ DET · | Pass TDs | 1.7▲ 0.2 above the line | 2.8 | 1.5 | 7/10 games over this line | 50%* | 47% | |
| Jared GoffDET · NE @ DET · | Pass TDs | 1.6▲ 0.1 above the line | 1.4 | 1.5 | 5/10 games over this line | 49%* | 44% | |
| Isaac TeSlaaDET · NE @ DET · | Receptions | 1.5at the line | 1.8 | 1.5 | 5/10 games over this line | 49%* | 41% | |
| Drake MayeNE · NE @ DET · | Interceptions | 0.8▲ 0.3 above the line | 0.8 | 0.5 | 7/10 games over this line | 49%* | 45% | |
| Jared GoffDET · NE @ DET · | Interceptions | 0.6▲ 0.1 above the line | 0.4 | 0.5 | 4/10 games over this line | 49%* | 36% | |
| Josh AllenBUF · BUF @ NYJ · | Pass+Rush yds | 259.0▼ 3.5 below the line | 282.4 | 262.5 | 6/10 games over this line | 49%* | 43% | |
| Geno SmithNYJ · BUF @ NYJ · | Pass yds | 236.1▲ 17.6 above the line | 235.2 | 218.5 | 5/10 games over this line | 50%* | 51% | |
| Josh AllenBUF · BUF @ NYJ · | Pass yds | 226.0▼ 1.5 below the line | 248.2 | 227.5 | 8/10 games over this line | 49%* | 43% | |
| James Cook IIIBUF · BUF @ NYJ · | Rush+Rec yds | 106.2▲ 0.7 above the line | 112.4 | 105.5 | 6/10 games over this line | 49%* | 45% | |
| James Cook IIIBUF · BUF @ NYJ · | Rush yds | 91.0▼ 0.5 below the line | 93.6 | 91.5 | 6/10 games over this line | 49%* | 44% | |
| Breece HallNYJ · BUF @ NYJ · | Rush+Rec yds | 69.2▼ 8.3 below the line | 96.2 | 77.5 | 5/10 games over this line | 48%* | 35% | |
| Garrett Wilson65% to playNYJ · BUF @ NYJ · | Rec yds | 54.8▼ 6.7 below the line | 56.8 | 61.5 | 4/10 games over this line | 48%* | 35% | |
| Khalil ShakirBUF · BUF @ NYJ · | Rec yds | 49.8▲ 9.3 above the line | 63.6 | 40.5 | 7/10 games over this line | 50%* | 53% | |
| Dalton KincaidBUF · BUF @ NYJ · | Rec yds | 42.6▲ 1.1 above the line | 33.2 | 41.5 | 4/10 games over this line | 49%* | 42% | |
| DJ MooreBUF · BUF @ NYJ · | Rec yds | 38.5▼ 9.0 below the line | 37.0 | 47.5 | 5/10 games over this line | 48%* | 30% | |
| Josh AllenBUF · BUF @ NYJ · | Rush yds | 33.0▲ 4.5 above the line | 34.2 | 28.5 | 5/10 games over this line | 50%* | 48% | |
| Geno SmithNYJ · BUF @ NYJ · | Pass att | 30.9▼ 1.6 below the line | 30.8 | 32.5 | 2/10 games over this line | 49%* | 40% | |
| Josh AllenBUF · BUF @ NYJ · | Pass att | 30.2▲ 1.7 above the line | 30.0 | 28.5 | 8/10 games over this line | 50%* | 53% | |
| James Cook IIIBUF · BUF @ NYJ · | Carries | 20.1▲ 0.6 above the line | 22.2 | 19.5 | 7/10 games over this line | 50%* | 49% | |
| Geno SmithNYJ · BUF @ NYJ · | Completions | 20.1▼ 0.4 below the line | 19.6 | 20.5 | 3/10 games over this line | 49%* | 44% | |
| Josh AllenBUF · BUF @ NYJ · | Completions | 19.7▼ 0.8 below the line | 20.0 | 20.5 | 6/10 games over this line | 49%* | 42% | |
| James Cook IIIBUF · BUF @ NYJ · | Rec yds | 15.2▲ 5.7 above the line | 18.8 | 9.5 | 4/10 games over this line | 50%* | 48% | |
| Breece HallNYJ · BUF @ NYJ · | Carries | 11.9▼ 1.6 below the line | 16.0 | 13.5 | 8/10 games over this line | 48%* | 35% | |
| Josh AllenBUF · BUF @ NYJ · | Carries | 7.3▲ 0.8 above the line | 6.6 | 6.5 | 6/10 games over this line | 50%* | 50% | |
| Garrett Wilson65% to playNYJ · BUF @ NYJ · | Receptions | 4.3▼ 1.2 below the line | 4.4 | 5.5 | 4/10 games over this line | 48%* | 28% | |
| Khalil ShakirBUF · BUF @ NYJ · | Receptions | 4.3▲ 0.8 above the line | 4.6 | 3.5 | 7/10 games over this line | 51%* | 58% | |
| Dalton KincaidBUF · BUF @ NYJ · | Receptions | 3.4▼ 0.1 below the line | 3.2 | 3.5 | 5/10 games over this line | 49%* | 42% | |
| DJ MooreBUF · BUF @ NYJ · | Receptions | 3.0▼ 0.5 below the line | 2.8 | 3.5 | 5/10 games over this line | 48%* | 34% | |
| Breece HallNYJ · BUF @ NYJ · | Receptions | 1.9▼ 0.6 below the line | 3.0 | 2.5 | 4/10 games over this line | 48%* | 30% | |
| Geno SmithNYJ · BUF @ NYJ · | Pass TDs | 1.5at the line | 1.4 | 1.5 | 3/10 games over this line | 49%* | 41% | |
| James Cook IIIBUF · BUF @ NYJ · | Receptions | 1.4▼ 0.1 below the line | 1.6 | 1.5 | 6/10 games over this line | 49%* | 40% | |
| Josh AllenBUF · BUF @ NYJ · | Pass TDs | 1.4▼ 0.1 below the line | 1.4 | 1.5 | 5/10 games over this line | 49%* | 39% | |
| Josh AllenBUF · BUF @ NYJ · | Interceptions | 0.7▲ 0.2 above the line | 0.8 | 0.5 | 6/10 games over this line | 49%* | 39% | |
| Geno SmithNYJ · BUF @ NYJ · | Interceptions | 0.6▲ 0.1 above the line | 0.6 | 0.5 | 4/10 games over this line | 49%* | 36% | |
| Bryce YoungCAR · CAR @ NO · | Pass yds | 247.2▼ 1.3 below the line | 251.6 | 248.5 | 8/10 games over this line | 49%* | 44% | |
| Chris OlaveNO · CAR @ NO · | Rec yds | 81.1▲ 10.6 above the line | 71.8 | 70.5 | 7/10 games over this line | 50%* | 54% | |
| Chuba HubbardCAR · CAR @ NO · | Rush yds | 73.3▼ 1.2 below the line | 87.0 | 74.5 | 5/10 games over this line | 49%* | 42% | |
| Tetairoa McMillanCAR · CAR @ NO · | Rec yds | 70.6▲ 10.1 above the line | 86.4 | 60.5 | 6/10 games over this line | 50%* | 53% | |
| Jalen CokerCAR · CAR @ NO · | Rec yds | 51.8▲ 1.3 above the line | 37.8 | 50.5 | 4/10 games over this line | 49%* | 43% | |
| Tyler ShoughNO · CAR @ NO · | Pass att | 35.6▼ 0.9 below the line | 35.2 | 36.5 | 4/10 games over this line | 49%* | 43% | |
| Bryce YoungCAR · CAR @ NO · | Pass att | 34.2▼ 2.3 below the line | 37.4 | 36.5 | 7/10 games over this line | 49%* | 38% | |
| Tyler ShoughNO · CAR @ NO · | Completions | 23.2▼ 1.3 below the line | 22.6 | 24.5 | 5/10 games over this line | 49%* | 40% | |
| Bryce YoungCAR · CAR @ NO · | Completions | 21.5▼ 2.0 below the line | 22.8 | 23.5 | 4/10 games over this line | 49%* | 36% | |
| Chuba HubbardCAR · CAR @ NO · | Carries | 15.9▼ 1.6 below the line | 18.6 | 17.5 | 4/10 games over this line | 49%* | 36% | |
| Chris OlaveNO · CAR @ NO · | Receptions | 5.8▼ 0.7 below the line | 5.8 | 6.5 | 7/10 games over this line | 49%* | 37% | |
| Tetairoa McMillanCAR · CAR @ NO · | Receptions | 5.2▲ 0.7 above the line | 6.8 | 4.5 | 6/10 games over this line | 51%* | 56% | |
| Jalen CokerCAR · CAR @ NO · | Receptions | 4.1▼ 0.4 below the line | 3.0 | 4.5 | 5/10 games over this line | 49%* | 38% | |
| Tyler ShoughNO · CAR @ NO · | Pass TDs | 1.7▲ 0.2 above the line | 1.2 | 1.5 | 4/10 games over this line | 50%* | 46% | |
| Bryce YoungCAR · CAR @ NO · | Pass TDs | 1.7▲ 0.2 above the line | 1.8 | 1.5 | 6/10 games over this line | 50%* | 46% | |
| Bryce YoungCAR · CAR @ NO · | Interceptions | 0.8▲ 0.3 above the line | 0.8 | 0.5 | 7/10 games over this line | 49%* | 41% | |
| Tyler ShoughNO · CAR @ NO · | Interceptions | 0.7▲ 0.2 above the line | 0.6 | 0.5 | 5/10 games over this line | 49%* | 39% |
* Posted in ESPN's feed without prices, so the line is read as the book's 50/50 point and a parlay can't show its payout.
About L10. It counts the games he went over this line in his last ten, the number prop apps lead with, and it describes the past. On 1,071 past NFL lines where a player had cleared it in 8 or more of his last 10, 50.3% went over next time; the book had them at 51.9%. Books move the line to recent form, so the over chance is the number to go by.
Do these chances hold up?
Every graded NFL main line since the tuning season, at the chance this board would have shown for the likelier side: when it said 60%, did that side come in about 60% of the time? 17,384 lines, pushes left out.
Show as table
| Confidence | Lines | Stated | Came in |
|---|---|---|---|
| 50%–55% | 13,475 | 51.6% | 52.4% |
| 55%–60% | 3,018 | 57.0% | 57.0% |
| 60%–65% | 771 | 61.7% | 63.7% |
| 65%–70% | 117 | 66.5% | 66.7% |
| 70%–75% | 2 | 74.3% | 50.0% |
| 90%–95% | 1 | 90.2% | 100.0% |
Latest logged picks
The model's NFL disagreements, logged before each game at the line and price on offer then, and graded after. A player who doesn't play voids the pick, as the books settle it.
Logging starts as the next games get close. Picks show up here once their games are final.