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Washington Commanders at New York Giants, NFL forecast

Prime Video

Away

Commanders

2-5-1

45%

at

Home

Giants

5-2-1

55%

The pick
NYG · Lean
Line
NYG -2.5
Projected
20–22
Fair odds
-124

Your pick

MetLife Stadium · Prime Video · Cloudy, 52°F

The short version

  • The betting line has the Giants favored by 2.5, and the forecast follows it (Giants 55%) because lines have beaten every rating model we've tested.
  • Our own ratings like the Giants more, at 58%.
  • Behind our ratings' number: the Giants rate higher (1492 to 1395 Elo), quarterback changes favor the Commanders and the Giants have home field.
  • Likely out: Cam Skattebo (NYG).
  • It's moved toward the Giants since we first logged it, from 52% to 55%.

What's at stake

Each team's chance to make the playoffs if it wins this game and if it loses, from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season.

Commanders

Now 5%

9%

with a win

2%

with a loss

This game is worth 7 points of playoff chance to them.

Giants

Now 78%

86%

with a win

69%

with a loss

This game is worth 17 points of playoff chance to them.

How the forecast moved

NYG went from 52% to 55% over 15 updates; the betting line was first on file Wednesday, November 4 at 11:31 PM ET. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.

Forecast (NYG win chance) Betting line, margin removed Injury news
45%55%65%Wed 11 PMSun 12 AMWed 12 AM

Sat, Nov 7, 9:50 PM ESTCam Skattebo out · forecast NYG 52%

The pick

Live forecast: refreshes with lines and injury news until the game starts, then locks. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.

Giants 55%

Lean
WSH 45%NYG 55%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 62.9% of 143 graded games.

Market
NYG -2.5
ML WSH +114 / NYG -135
Pre-line forecast
NYG 57%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
NYG -2.5
NYG 58%
Ratings vs. market
+3.3 pts
NYG: Elo 58.5%, market 55.1%
Fair odds
NYG -124
WSH +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Projected score
WSH 19.5 – 22.0 NYG
Posted spread, posted total 41.5
Add to your parlay:

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorWSHNYGWhy
Team rating13951492Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+36Worth 36 Elo in the NFL
Quarterbacks+37−23WSH: Jayden Daniels · NYG: J.J. McCarthy (65%) or Jameis Winston (35%), usually Jaxson Dart (against each team's recent starters, from the depth chart and injury report)
Injuries—−15Key absences: Cam Skattebo
Elo ratingsNYG +59 EloNYG 58.5%
Market-implied ratingsNYG 51.6%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastNYG 56.8%75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend)
ForecastNYG 55.4%93% market, 8% Elo

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Adjusted: the scoring model’s ratings a game, which account for who they played. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.

Try another venue →
Washington Commanders and New York Giants compared, with each team's league rank
WSHStatNYG
21st of 3221.5Points scored22.816th of 32
24th of 3225.3Points allowed21.512th of 32
21st of 32−3.8Margin+1.316th of 32
18th of 325.25Yards per play5.0621st of 32
14th of 325.25Yards allowed per play5.029th of 32
30th of 320–3Road vs home3–19th of 32
19th of 321491Opponent Elo142832nd of 32
24th of 321395Elo rating149218th of 32
18th of 32+0.1Offense, adjusted−1.123rd of 32
25th of 32−1.9Defense, adjusted−0.720th of 32

Player props

Projected from each player's share of his team's targets, carries and passes, next to DraftKings lines. Over chances follow the book's own number with its margin removed, which was the more accurate of the two on 17,384 graded NFL lines (log loss 0.689 vs our model's 0.721). Where our model disagreed with the price by 10+ points (tagged "model"), bets won 51% and returned −1.9% a bet over 4,421 graded lines. Not betting advice.

Your parlay →
PlayerProjLineOverParlay
J.J. McCarthyNYG237.2210.550%*
Jayden DanielsWSH204.9200.550%*

* DraftKings lists these lines in ESPN's feed without prices, so each is read as the book's 50/50 point, the chance leans only slightly toward our model, and a parlay can't show what the book would pay for them.

What if…

Pick something that might happen in this game and see how every other line's chance moves if it does.

  • Isaiah Likely (NYG) over 45.5 receiving yards50%60%
  • Malachi Fields (NYG) over 26.5 receiving yards50%61%
  • Darnell Mooney (NYG) over 15.5 receiving yards50%61%
  • Devin Singletary (NYG) over 8.5 receiving yards50%60%
  • Malik Nabers (NYG) over 66.5 receiving yards51%61%
  • Isaiah Likely (NYG) over 4.5 receptions50%58%
  • Darnell Mooney (NYG) over 1.5 receptions50%58%
  • Malachi Fields (NYG) over 2.5 receptions50%57%
  • Devin Singletary (NYG) over 1.5 receptions49%57%
  • Malik Nabers (NYG) over 5.5 receptions51%59%
His other lines (6)
  • J.J. McCarthy (NYG) over 233.5 passing + rushing yards50%90%
  • J.J. McCarthy (NYG) over 18.5 completions51%77%
  • J.J. McCarthy (NYG) over 31.5 pass attempts50%70%
  • J.J. McCarthy (NYG) over 1.5 passing touchdowns49%64%
  • J.J. McCarthy (NYG) over 0.5 interceptions thrown49%47%
  • J.J. McCarthy (NYG) over 18.5 rushing yards48%47%

What each chance becomes if it happens, from how players' stats and results moved together in 467 past games, the same numbers behind same-game parlays (tested on games the fit never saw). It says how things are linked, not that any of it will happen.

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

CommandersGiants
1250135014501550league averageSepDecMarJunSep

Injury report

Current ESPN report. Elo values show what the model subtracts.

Commanders

25 listed

  • Colson Yankoff TE

    Questionable

    Yankoff (knee) did not participate in Tuesday's walkthrough practice.

  • Treylon Burks WR

    Questionable

    questionable

  • Chig Okonkwo TE

    Active

    Okonkwo (hip) was a full participant in Tuesday's practice.

  • Shy Tuttle DT

    Active

  • Lucas Patrick G

    Doubtful

    doubtful

  • Antonio Williams WR

    Active

    Williams caught three passes for 25 yards on six targets in Sunday's 20-13 loss to the Rams.

  • Drew Stevens PK

    Active

    Stevens made both of his field-goal attempts and his only PAT during Sunday's 20-13 loss to the Rams.

  • Austin Ekeler RB

    Active

    Ekeler rushed eight times for 16 yards and caught two of three targets for 18 yards during Sunday's 20-13 loss to the Rams.

  • Isaac Yiadom CB

    Active

  • Tanoa Togiai G

    Active

  • Fabian Moreau CB

    Active

  • Athan Kaliakmanis QB

    Active

Giants

25 listed

  • Cam Skattebo RB

    −15 EloOut

    Team rushing leader (98 CAR, 418 YDS, 2 TD)

    Skattebo (hamstring) was listed as a full participant in Tuesday's practice, Dan Salomone of the Giants' official site reports.

  • Greg Desrosiers Jr. RB

    Active

    Desrosiers carried the ball three times for 20 yards during the Giants' win over the Eagles on Sunday.

  • Colton Hood CB

    Questionable

    questionable

  • Theo Johnson TE

    Active

    Johnson wasn't targeted in Sunday's 19-11 win over the Eagles.

  • Darnell Mooney WR

    Active

    Mooney (chest) was a full participant in Tuesday's practice, Dan Salomone of the Giants' official site reports.

  • Charlie Jones WR

    Active

  • Malachi Fields WR

    Active

    Fields caught three of five targets for 40 yards in Sunday's 19-11 win over the Eagles.

  • Malik Harrison LB

    Questionable

    questionable

  • Abdul Carter LB

    Questionable

    questionable

  • Nikko Reed CB

    Active

  • Josh Sills G

    Active

  • Thomas Fidone II TE

    Active

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonWSHNYG
Against the spread4–46–2
Last 104–46–2
Favorite1–12–1
Underdog3–34–1
Overs–unders4–45–3
Overs–unders, last 104–45–3

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

WSH 4–2 NYG in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 6.