Los Angeles Chargers at Baltimore Ravens, NFL forecast
The short version
- The betting line has the Ravens favored by 4.5, and the forecast follows it (Ravens 66%) because lines have beaten every rating model we've tested.
- Our own ratings like the Ravens more, at 69%.
- Behind our ratings' number: the Ravens rate higher (1516 to 1342 Elo), the Ravens are expected to start Jacoby Brissett instead of Lamar Jackson and the Ravens have home field.
- Likely out: Lamar Jackson (BAL).
- It's moved toward the Ravens since we first logged it, from 62% to 66%.
What's at stake
Each team's chance to make the playoffs if it wins this game and if it loses, from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season.
Chargers
Now 0%
0%
with a win
0%
with a loss
Their playoff odds barely move on this one.
Ravens
Now 19%
24%
with a win
9%
with a loss
This game is worth 15 points of playoff chance to them.
How the forecast moved
BAL went from 62% to 66% over 4 updates; the betting line was first on file Sunday, November 8 at 8:54 PM ET. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.
The pick
Live forecast: refreshes with lines and injury news until the game starts, then locks. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Ravens 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 71.4% of 105 graded games.
- Market
- BAL -4.5
- ML LAC +180 / BAL -218
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 68%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL -5.5
- BAL 69%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.3 pts
- BAL: Elo 69.0%, market 65.7%
- Fair odds
- BAL -194
- LAC +194 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Projected score
- LAC 17.0 – 21.5 BAL
- Posted spread, posted total 38.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAC | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1342 | 1516 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | −37 | −114 | LAC: Justin Herbert (65%) or DJ Uiagalelei (35%) · BAL: Jacoby Brissett, usually Lamar Jackson (against each team's recent starters, from the depth chart and injury report) |
| Injuries | −5 | — | Key absences: Ladd McConkey |
| Elo ratings | BAL +139 Elo | BAL 69.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 65.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 68.2% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BAL 66.0% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Adjusted: the scoring model’s ratings a game, which account for who they played. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| LAC | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 32nd of 3215.1 | Points scored | 21.022nd of 32 |
| 28th of 3227.4 | Points allowed | 26.225th of 32 |
| 32nd of 32−12.3 | Margin | −5.226th of 32 |
| 29th of 324.68 | Yards per play | 5.4913th of 32 |
| 25th of 325.65 | Yards allowed per play | 5.3717th of 32 |
| 30th of 320–4 | Road vs home | 1–319th of 32 |
| 2nd of 321558 | Opponent Elo | 148024th of 32 |
| 30th of 321342 | Elo rating | 151616th of 32 |
| 28th of 32−2.0 | Offense, adjusted | +1.011th of 32 |
| 16th of 32+0.1 | Defense, adjusted | −0.418th of 32 |
Player props
Projected from each player's share of his team's targets, carries and passes, next to sportsbook lines once they post. Over chances follow the book's own number with its margin removed, which was the more accurate of the two on 17,384 graded NFL lines (log loss 0.689 vs our model's 0.721). Where our model disagreed with the price by 10+ points (tagged "model"), bets won 51% and returned −1.9% a bet over 4,421 graded lines. Not betting advice.
| Player | Role | Proj | L5 | Line | L10 | Over | Model | Parlay |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin HerbertLAC | QB · 32 attempts | 215.2 | 192.8 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Jacoby BrissettBAL | QB · 26 attempts | 164.8 | 213.4 | — | — | — | — | No line |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Injury report
Current ESPN report. Elo values show what the model subtracts.
Chargers
25 listedJustin Herbert QB
−43 EloQuestionableWorth 123 Elo more than DJ Uiagalelei
Chargers head coach Jim Harbaugh said that Herbert "should be good to go" for Monday's game at Baltimore after imaging on the quarterback's injured left middle finger returned negative for a fracture, ESPN.com reports.
Ladd McConkey WR
−5 EloQuestionableTeam receiving leader (17 REC, 286 YDS, 1 TD)
Chargers coach Jim Harbaugh noted Monday that McConkey is viewed as "day to day" with back spasms, Alex Insdorf of BoltBeat.com reports.
KeAndre Lambert-Smith WR
ActiveLambert-Smith registered one catch (on four targets) for 50 yards in Sunday's loss to Houston.
Kimani Vidal RB
ActiveVidal rushed seven times for 30 yards in Sunday's 44-22 loss to the Texans. He added one catch for six yards on three targets.
Oronde Gadsden TE
ActiveGadsden caught two of three targets for 17 yards during the Chargers' 44-22 loss to the Texans on Sunday.
Charlie Kolar TE
ActiveKolar brought in all three of his targets for 31 yards in a 44-22 loss to the Texans on Sunday.
Kendall Williamson S
Questionablequestionable
Brenen Thompson WR
Questionablequestionable
Deane Leonard CB
Questionablequestionable
Kayode Awosika G
Questionablequestionable
Tre' Harris WR
ActiveHarris caught three of seven targets for six yards during Sunday's 44-22 loss to the Texans.
Theo Wease Jr. WR
Active
Ravens
25 listedLamar Jackson QB
−114 EloInjured ReserveUsual starter; Jacoby Brissett starts in his place
Jackson, who is scheduled to undergo surgery on his injured right thumb, has told teammates he plans to return later this season, Ian Rapoport of NFL Network reports.
Ryan Neuzil C
ActiveThe Falcons traded Neuzil to the Ravens on Tuesday in exchange for Andrew Vorhees and a conditional 2028 sixth-round pick, Jamison Hensley of ESPN.com reports.
Kyle Hamilton S
QuestionableRavens head coach Jesse Minter said Monday that Hamilton, who couldn't finish last Thursday's loss to Jacksonville due to a hip injury, "looks fairly good," Jonas Shaffer of TheBaltimoreBanner.com reports.
Nate Wiggins CB
Questionablequestionable
Jaylinn Hawkins S
Questionablequestionable
Aeneas Peebles DT
ActiveEmery Jones Jr. OT
ActiveKedon Slovis QB
ActiveElijah Sarratt WR
ActiveJacoby Brissett QB
ActiveAhead of Week 10, Ravens head coach Jesse Minter noted "I expect (Brissett) to be our starter" next Monday against the Chargers, Jeff Zrebiec of The Athletic reports.
Malaki Starks S
ActiveStarks finished Baltimore's Week 9 loss to the Jaguars on Thursday with four tackles (three solo) and a forced fumble.
Roquan Smith LB
ActiveSmith finished with eight tackles (two solo) in Thursday's Week 9 loss to Jacksonville.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAC |  BAL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 0–7–1 | 2–6–1 |
| Last 10 | 0–7–1 | 2–6–1 |
| Favorite | 0–2 | 1–3–1 |
| Underdog | 0–5–1 | 1–3 |
| Overs–unders | 2–6 | 6–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–6 | 6–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAC 0–2 BAL in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.