Jacksonville Jaguars at Baltimore Ravens, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BAL; hover for each play.
How the forecast moved
BAL went from 57% to 19% over 10 updates; the betting line was first on file Friday, October 30 at 12:03 PM ET. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.
Tue, Nov 3, 1:05 PM ESTTyler Huntley out · forecast BAL 21%
Tue, Nov 3, 11:23 PM ESTLamar Jackson back · forecast BAL 19%
Wed, Nov 4, 11:31 PM ESTTyler Huntley back · forecast BAL 19%
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Jaguars- Trevor LawrencePassing16/26, 242 YDS, 1 TD
- Ameer AbdullahRushing7 CAR, 30 YDS
- Jakobi MeyersReceiving4 REC, 65 YDS
Ravens- Joe FagnanoPassing10/18, 60 YDS, 2 INT
- Justice HillRushing9 CAR, 85 YDS, 1 TD
- Mark AndrewsReceiving2 REC, 19 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q47:15Justice Hill 65 Yd Rush (Jake Moody Kick)33–10
- Q47:26Chris Rodriguez Jr. 2 Yd Rush (Cam Little Kick)33–3
- Q411:52Cam Little 33 Yd Field Goal26–3
- Q413:35Cam Little 47 Yd Field Goal23–3
- Q312:48Cam Little 45 Yd Field Goal20–3
- Q20:58Parker Washington 50 Yd pass from Trevor Lawrence (Cam Little Kick)17–3
- Q12:00Cam Little 36 Yd Field Goal10–3
- Q16:31Jake Moody 53 Yd Field Goal7–3
- Q111:20Bhayshul Tuten 1 Yd Rush (Cam Little Kick)7–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:20Bhayshul Tuten 1 Yd Rush (Cam Little Kick)JAX 7 – 0 BAL · JAX 80% → 90% +10JAX 80% → 90%+10 pts
- Q16:31Jake Moody 53 Yd Field GoalJAX 7 – 3 BAL · BAL 10% → 14% +4BAL 10% → 14%+4 pts
- Q12:00Cam Little 36 Yd Field GoalJAX 10 – 3 BAL · JAX 85% → 90% +4JAX 85% → 90%+4 pts
- Q20:58Parker Washington 50 Yd pass from Trevor Lawrence (Cam Little Kick)JAX 17 – 3 BAL · JAX 89% → 97% +8JAX 89% → 97%+8 pts
- Q312:48Cam Little 45 Yd Field GoalJAX 20 – 3 BAL · JAX 97% → 98% +1JAX 97% → 98%+1 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Jaguars 81%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 85.7% of 35 graded games.
- Market
- JAX -10
- ML JAX -520 / BAL +390
- Pre-line forecast
- JAX 82%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- JAX -11.5
- JAX 84%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.2 pts
- JAX: Elo 83.6%, market 80.4%
- Fair odds
- JAX -418
- BAL +418 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- JAX 24.8 – 14.8 BAL
- Posted spread, posted total 39.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | JAX | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1631 | 1528 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +9 | −213 | JAX: Trevor Lawrence · BAL: Joe Fagnano, usually Lamar Jackson (against each team's recent starters, from the depth chart and injury report) |
| Injuries | −5 | — | Key absences: Bhayshul Tuten |
| Elo ratings | JAX +283 Elo | JAX 83.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | JAX 74.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | JAX 81.7% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | JAX 80.7% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| JAX | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 3228.0 | Points scored | 22.419th of 32 |
| 2nd of 3215.9 | Points allowed | 25.422nd of 32 |
| 1st of 32+12.1 | Margin | −3.023rd of 32 |
| 7th of 325.92 | Yards per play | 5.639th of 32 |
| 22nd of 325.56 | Yards allowed per play | 5.3315th of 32 |
| 10th of 321–1 | Road vs home | 1–218th of 32 |
| 12th of 321504 | Opponent Elo | 145630th of 32 |
| 6th of 321631 | Elo rating | 152814th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  JAX |  BAL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 4–3 | 2–5–1 |
| Last 10 | 4–3 | 2–5–1 |
| Favorite | 3–2 | 1–3–1 |
| Underdog | 1–1 | 1–2 |
| Overs–unders | 3–4 | 5–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–4 | 5–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
JAX 0–1 BAL in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.