Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors JAX; hover for each play.
How the forecast moved
JAX went from 76% to 80% over 11 updates; the betting line was first on file Saturday, October 24 at 4:25 PM ET. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Colts- Daniel JonesPassing19/28, 144 YDS, 1 TD, 2 INT
- DJ GiddensRushing6 CAR, 43 YDS
- Keenan AllenReceiving7 REC, 67 YDS
Jaguars- Trevor LawrencePassing10/14, 210 YDS, 3 TD
- Bhayshul TutenRushing16 CAR, 104 YDS, 1 TD
- Bhayshul TutenReceiving2 REC, 55 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q30:00Bhayshul Tuten 25 Yd pass from Trevor Lawrence (Cam Little Kick)7–42
- Q33:59Josh Downs 6 Yd pass from Daniel Jones (Spencer Shrader Kick)7–35
- Q39:08Chris Rodriguez Jr. 28 Yd Rush (Cam Little Kick)0–35
- Q20:10Rayuan Lane III 92 Yd Interception Return (Cam Little Kick)0–28
- Q21:51Bhayshul Tuten 39 Yd Rush (Cam Little Kick)0–21
- Q27:14Nate Boerkircher 31 Yd pass from Trevor Lawrence (Cam Little Kick)0–14
- Q15:30Brian Thomas Jr. 12 Yd pass from Trevor Lawrence (Cam Little Kick)0–7
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q15:30Brian Thomas Jr. 12 Yd pass from Trevor Lawrence (Cam Little Kick)IND 0 – 7 JAX · JAX 78% → 89% +11JAX 78% → 89%+11 pts
- Q27:14Nate Boerkircher 31 Yd pass from Trevor Lawrence (Cam Little Kick)IND 0 – 14 JAX · JAX 89% → 96% +7JAX 89% → 96%+7 pts
- Q21:51Bhayshul Tuten 39 Yd Rush (Cam Little Kick)IND 0 – 21 JAX · JAX 97% → >99% +3JAX 97% → >99%+3 pts
- Q20:10Rayuan Lane III 92 Yd Interception Return (Cam Little Kick)IND 0 – 28 JAX · JAX >99% → >99% +1JAX >99% → >99%+1 pts
- Q39:08Chris Rodriguez Jr. 28 Yd Rush (Cam Little Kick)IND 0 – 35 JAX · JAX >99% → >99% +0JAX >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Jaguars 80%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 85.7% of 35 graded games.
- Market
- JAX -10
- ML IND +380 / JAX -500
- Pre-line forecast
- JAX 80%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- JAX -10
- JAX 81%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.5 pts
- JAX: Elo 80.5%, market 80.0%
- Fair odds
- JAX -401
- IND +401 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- IND 18.3 – 28.3 JAX
- Posted spread, posted total 46.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | IND | JAX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1399 | 1615 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +14 | +8 | IND: Daniel Jones · JAX: Trevor Lawrence (against each team's recent starters, from the depth chart and injury report) |
| Elo ratings | JAX +246 Elo | JAX 80.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | JAX 77.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | JAX 79.8% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | JAX 80.0% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| IND | Stat | JAX |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 3222.0 | Points scored | 25.78th of 32 |
| 23rd of 3225.7 | Points allowed | 17.33rd of 32 |
| 25th of 32−3.7 | Margin | +8.32nd of 32 |
| 31st of 324.54 | Yards per play | 5.788th of 32 |
| 28th of 325.82 | Yards allowed per play | 5.8227th of 32 |
| 30th of 320–3 | Road vs home | 2–01st of 32 |
| 16th of 321504 | Opponent Elo | 15276th of 32 |
| 25th of 321399 | Elo rating | 16156th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  IND |  JAX |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 4–3 | 3–3 |
| Last 10 | 4–3 | 3–3 |
| Favorite | 1–1 | 2–2 |
| Underdog | 3–2 | 1–1 |
| Overs–unders | 4–3 | 2–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–3 | 2–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
IND 1–5 JAX in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 6.