San Francisco 49ers at Dallas Cowboys, NFL forecast
The short version
- The betting line has the 49ers favored by 3.5, and the forecast follows it (49ers 65%) because lines have beaten every rating model we've tested.
- Our own ratings like the 49ers more, at 75%.
- Behind our ratings' number: the 49ers rate higher (1634 to 1415 Elo) and the Cowboys have home field.
What's at stake
Each team's chance to make the playoffs if it wins this game and if it loses, from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season.
49ers
Now 97%
98%
with a win
93%
with a loss
This game is worth 6 points of playoff chance to them.
Cowboys
Now 19%
30%
with a win
14%
with a loss
This game is worth 16 points of playoff chance to them.
How the forecast moved
DAL went from 35% to 35% over 7 updates; the betting line was first on file Saturday, November 7 at 9:50 PM ET. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.
The pick
Live forecast: refreshes with lines and injury news until the game starts, then locks. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
49ers 65%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 71.4% of 105 graded games.
- Market
- SF -3.5
- ML SF -205 / DAL +170
- Pre-line forecast
- SF 70%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SF -7.5
- SF 75%
- Ratings vs. market
- +10.4 pts
- SF: Elo 74.9%, market 64.5%
- Fair odds
- SF -188
- DAL +188 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Projected score
- SF 29.5 – 26.0 DAL
- Posted spread, posted total 55.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SF | DAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1634 | 1415 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +24 | +17 | SF: Brock Purdy · DAL: Dak Prescott (against each team's recent starters, from the depth chart and injury report) |
| Elo ratings | SF +190 Elo | SF 74.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SF 51.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SF 69.8% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SF 65.3% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Adjusted: the scoring model’s ratings a game, which account for who they played. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| SF | Stat | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 3229.4 | Points scored | 27.36th of 32 |
| 6th of 3219.5 | Points allowed | 26.225th of 32 |
| 2nd of 32+9.9 | Margin | +1.117th of 32 |
| 1st of 326.31 | Yards per play | 5.5611th of 32 |
| 3rd of 324.78 | Yards allowed per play | 5.7929th of 32 |
| 14th of 321–1 | Road vs home | 1–218th of 32 |
| 22nd of 321483 | Opponent Elo | 146030th of 32 |
| 6th of 321634 | Elo rating | 141522nd of 32 |
| 7th of 32+2.3 | Offense, adjusted | +2.35th of 32 |
| 15th of 32+0.2 | Defense, adjusted | −2.932nd of 32 |
Player props
Projected from each player's share of his team's targets, carries and passes, next to DraftKings lines. Over chances follow the book's own number with its margin removed, which was the more accurate of the two on 17,384 graded NFL lines (log loss 0.689 vs our model's 0.721). Where our model disagreed with the price by 10+ points (tagged "model"), bets won 51% and returned −1.9% a bet over 4,421 graded lines. Not betting advice.
| Player | Role | Proj | L5 | Line | L10 | Over | Model | Parlay |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dak PrescottDAL | QB · 37 attempts | 262.9 | 263.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Brock PurdySF | QB · 31 attempts | 247.8 | 238.2 | 253.5 | 5/10 games over this line | 49%* | 42% |
* DraftKings lists these lines in ESPN's feed without prices, so each is read as the book's 50/50 point, the chance leans only slightly toward our model, and a parlay can't show what the book would pay for them.
What if…
Pick something that might happen in this game and see how every other line's chance moves if it does.
- Javonte Williams (DAL) over 2.5 receptions50%60%
- CeeDee Lamb (DAL) over 7.5 receptions51%62%
- CeeDee Lamb (DAL) over 89.5 receiving yards52%61%
- Brock Purdy (SF) over 21.5 completions49%42%
- Brock Purdy (SF) over 31.5 pass attempts50%45%
- Javonte Williams (DAL) over 17.5 carries52%47%
- Cowboys win35%31%
- 49ers win65%69%
- Javonte Williams (DAL) over 64.5 rushing yards52%49%
- Brock Purdy (SF) over 278.5 passing + rushing yards49%46%
His other lines (5)
- Dak Prescott (DAL) over 36.5 pass attempts50%83%
- Dak Prescott (DAL) over 276.5 passing + rushing yards49%74%
- Dak Prescott (DAL) over 1.5 passing touchdowns50%57%
- Dak Prescott (DAL) over 9.5 rushing yards49%51%
- Dak Prescott (DAL) over 0.5 interceptions thrown49%50%
What each chance becomes if it happens, from how players' stats and results moved together in 467 past games, the same numbers behind same-game parlays (tested on games the fit never saw). It says how things are linked, not that any of it will happen.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Injury report
Current ESPN report. Elo values show what the model subtracts.
49ers
25 listedGracen Halton DT
Injured Reserveir
Brandin Cooks WR
ActiveCooks brought in both of his targets for 25 yards during Sunday's 38-17 win over the Raiders.
Demarcus Robinson WR
ActiveRobinson caught three passes for 22 yards on four targets in Sunday's 38-17 win over the Raiders.
Mac Jones QB
ActiveThe 49ers fielded trade inquiries in Jones from the Vikings leading up to Tuesday's deadline, but the quarterback is expected to remain in San Francisco, Dianna Russini of BetUS TV reports.
Mike Evans WR
Questionablequestionable
Deebo Samuel Sr. WR
Questionablequestionable
Jordan James RB
ActiveJames rushed three times for 11 yards and returned two kickoffs for 31 yards Sunday in a 38-17 victory versus Las Vegas.
Eddy Pineiro PK
ActivePineiro made his lone field-goal attempt and all five of his extra-point tries during San Francisco's win over the Raiders on Sunday.
C.J. West DT
Injured ReserveThe 49ers plan to open West's (undisclosed) practice window Wednesday, David Lombardi of SFStandard.com reports.
Deommodore Lenoir CB
QuestionableCoach Kyle Shanahan said Monday that Lenoir (foot) is considered day-to-day ahead of Sunday's game at Dallas, Matt Barrows of The Athletic reports.
Renardo Green CB
QuestionableCoach Kyle Shanahan said Monday that Green (back) is considered day-to-day ahead of Sunday's game at Dallas, Matt Barrows of The Athletic reports.
Brandon Aiyuk WR
OutThe 49ers reinstated Aiyuk (personal) from the reserve/left squad list Monday and were granted a two-week roster exemption for the wide receiver, Tom Pelissero of Netflix reports.
Cowboys
25 listedDeMarvion Overshown LB
Questionablequestionable
George Pickens WR
Questionablequestionable
Joey Porter Jr. CB
Questionablequestionable
Luke Schoonmaker TE
Questionablequestionable
KaVontae Turpin WR
Questionablequestionable
Tyler Goodson RB
OutGoodson sustained ACL and MCL sprains in his knee during Sunday's 27-23 win over the Colts, a source tells Todd Archer of ESPN.com.
Ryan Flournoy WR
ActiveFlournoy caught two of three targets for 53 yards during Sunday's 27-23 win over the Colts.
Jake Ferguson TE
Outout
Donovan Ezeiruaku LB
QuestionableEzeiruaku (ankle) is considered day-to-day, Nick Harris of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram reports.
P.J. Locke S
Outout
Brevyn Spann-Ford TE
ActiveSpann-Ford caught two of three targets for 20 yards during Sunday's 27-23 win versus the Colts.
Ajani Cornelius OT
Active
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SF |  DAL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 5–3 | 3–5–1 |
| Last 10 | 5–3 | 3–5–1 |
| Favorite | 3–3 | 2–4 |
| Underdog | 2–0 | 1–1–1 |
| Overs–unders | 4–4 | 6–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–4 | 6–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SF 2–0 DAL in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.