Dallas Cowboys at Indianapolis Colts, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors IND; hover for each play.
How the forecast moved
IND went from 35% to 34% over 8 updates; the betting line was first on file Saturday, October 31 at 5:51 PM ET. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cowboys- Dak PrescottPassing21/34, 335 YDS, 2 TD
- Javonte WilliamsRushing20 CAR, 101 YDS, 1 TD
- CeeDee LambReceiving10 REC, 195 YDS, 1 TD
Colts- Daniel JonesPassing20/34, 180 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- Jonathan TaylorRushing13 CAR, 46 YDS
- Ashton DulinReceiving1 REC, 55 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q41:08Javonte Williams 1 Yd Rush (Brandon Aubrey Kick)27–23
- Q41:37Spencer Shrader 50 Yd Field Goal20–23
- Q45:56Spencer Shrader 59 Yd Field Goal20–20
- Q31:17Ashton Dulin 55 Yd pass from Daniel Jones (Spencer Shrader Kick)20–17
- Q32:10Brandon Aubrey 28 Yd Field Goal20–10
- Q36:12Spencer Shrader 47 Yd Field Goal17–10
- Q20:21CeeDee Lamb 44 Yd pass from Dak Prescott (Brandon Aubrey Kick)17–7
- Q214:08Jake Ferguson 10 Yd pass from Dak Prescott (Brandon Aubrey Kick)10–7
- Q16:13Seth McGowan 2 Yd Rush (Spencer Shrader Kick)3–7
- Q111:45Brandon Aubrey 45 Yd Field Goal3–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q214:08Jake Ferguson 10 Yd pass from Dak Prescott (Brandon Aubrey Kick)DAL 10 – 7 IND · DAL 52% → 71% +19DAL 52% → 71%+19 pts
- Q31:17Ashton Dulin 55 Yd pass from Daniel Jones (Spencer Shrader Kick)DAL 20 – 17 IND · IND 8% → 28% +21IND 8% → 28%+21 pts
- Q45:56Spencer Shrader 59 Yd Field GoalDAL 20 – 20 IND · IND 23% → 45% +22IND 23% → 45%+22 pts
- Q41:37Spencer Shrader 50 Yd Field GoalDAL 20 – 23 IND · IND 47% → 86% +39IND 47% → 86%+39 pts
- Q41:08Javonte Williams 1 Yd Rush (Brandon Aubrey Kick)DAL 27 – 23 IND · DAL 9% → 97% +88DAL 9% → 97%+88 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Cowboys 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 71.4% of 105 graded games.
- Market
- DAL -4.5
- ML DAL -230 / IND +190
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- IND -1
- DAL 47%
- Ratings vs. market
- −19.8 pts
- DAL: Elo 47.1%, market 66.9%
- Fair odds
- DAL -190
- IND +190 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DAL 28.0 – 23.5 IND
- Posted spread, posted total 51.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DAL | IND | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1394 | 1383 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +17 | +11 | DAL: Dak Prescott · IND: Daniel Jones (against each team's recent starters, from the depth chart and injury report) |
| Elo ratings | IND +20 Elo | IND 52.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 56.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | IND 50.6% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DAL 65.5% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| DAL | Stat | IND |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 3227.4 | Points scored | 20.126th of 32 |
| 27th of 3226.6 | Points allowed | 27.830th of 32 |
| 16th of 32+0.8 | Margin | −7.628th of 32 |
| 17th of 325.34 | Yards per play | 4.4931st of 32 |
| 29th of 325.93 | Yards allowed per play | 5.9530th of 32 |
| 11th of 322–2 | Road vs home | 1–218th of 32 |
| 30th of 321467 | Opponent Elo | 15169th of 32 |
| 25th of 321394 | Elo rating | 138329th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DAL |  IND |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 3–4–1 | 4–4 |
| Last 10 | 3–4–1 | 4–4 |
| Favorite | 2–3 | 1–1 |
| Underdog | 1–1–1 | 3–3 |
| Overs–unders | 6–2 | 5–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–2 | 5–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.