Las Vegas Raiders at San Francisco 49ers, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SF; hover for each play.
How the forecast moved
SF went from 82% to 77% over 10 updates; the betting line was first on file Saturday, October 31 at 5:51 PM ET. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Raiders- Kirk CousinsPassing22/32, 216 YDS, 1 TD, 3 INT
- Ashton JeantyRushing6 CAR, 25 YDS
- Brock BowersReceiving7 REC, 111 YDS, 1 TD
49ers- Brock PurdyPassing17/25, 232 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- Kaelon BlackRushing11 CAR, 70 YDS
- Jordan WatkinsReceiving4 REC, 86 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q45:21Eddy Pineiro 35 Yd Field Goal17–38
- Q30:36Jordan Watkins 37 Yd pass from Brock Purdy (Eddy Pineiro Kick)17–35
- Q39:29Brock Bowers 21 Yd pass from Kirk Cousins (Matt Gay Kick)17–28
- Q314:43Jaden Dugger 35 Yd Interception Return (Eddy Pineiro Kick)10–28
- Q21:12Matt Gay 50 Yd Field Goal10–21
- Q25:15Christian McCaffrey 12 Yd pass from Brock Purdy (Eddy Pineiro Kick)7–21
- Q212:41Kirk Cousins 2 Yd Rush (Matt Gay Kick)7–14
- Q11:52Brock Purdy 1 Yd Rush (Eddy Pineiro Kick)0–14
- Q19:32Christian McCaffrey 1 Yd Rush (Eddy Pineiro Kick)0–7
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q19:32Christian McCaffrey 1 Yd Rush (Eddy Pineiro Kick)LV 0 – 7 SF · SF 76% → 88% +12SF 76% → 88%+12 pts
- Q11:52Brock Purdy 1 Yd Rush (Eddy Pineiro Kick)LV 0 – 14 SF · SF 88% → 95% +7SF 88% → 95%+7 pts
- Q212:41Kirk Cousins 2 Yd Rush (Matt Gay Kick)LV 7 – 14 SF · LV 5% → 12% +8LV 5% → 12%+8 pts
- Q25:15Christian McCaffrey 12 Yd pass from Brock Purdy (Eddy Pineiro Kick)LV 7 – 21 SF · SF 88% → 96% +8SF 88% → 96%+8 pts
- Q314:43Jaden Dugger 35 Yd Interception Return (Eddy Pineiro Kick)LV 10 – 28 SF · SF 93% → 98% +5SF 93% → 98%+5 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
49ers 77%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 69.3% of 75 graded games.
- Market
- SF -8.5
- ML LV +320 / SF -410
- Pre-line forecast
- SF 80%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SF -10
- SF 81%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.9 pts
- SF: Elo 81.1%, market 77.2%
- Fair odds
- SF -344
- LV +344 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LV 21.5 – 30.0 SF
- Posted spread, posted total 51.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LV | SF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1387 | 1621 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +42 | +25 | LV: Kirk Cousins · SF: Brock Purdy (against each team's recent starters, from the depth chart and injury report) |
| Elo ratings | SF +253 Elo | SF 81.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SF 74.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SF 79.6% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SF 77.5% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| LV | Stat | SF |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 3227.6 | Points scored | 28.14th of 32 |
| 31st of 3228.8 | Points allowed | 19.96th of 32 |
| 19th of 32−1.1 | Margin | +8.32nd of 32 |
| 15th of 325.37 | Yards per play | 6.361st of 32 |
| 31st of 326.10 | Yards allowed per play | 4.744th of 32 |
| 2nd of 323–1 | Road vs home | 4–01st of 32 |
| 19th of 321489 | Opponent Elo | 149914th of 32 |
| 26th of 321387 | Elo rating | 16217th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LV |  SF |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 6–2 | 4–3 |
| Last 10 | 6–2 | 4–3 |
| Favorite | 1–0 | 2–3 |
| Underdog | 5–2 | 2–0 |
| Overs–unders | 6–2 | 3–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–2 | 3–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.