Seattle Seahawks at Las Vegas Raiders, NFL forecast
The short version
- The betting line has the Seahawks favored by 6.5, and the forecast follows it (Seahawks 72%) because lines have beaten every rating model we've tested.
- Our own ratings like the Seahawks more, at 81%.
- Behind our ratings' number: the Seahawks rate higher (1649 to 1374 Elo) and the Raiders have home field.
- Likely out: Sam Darnold (SEA).
- It's moved toward the Seahawks since we first logged it, from 61% to 72%.
What's at stake
Each team's chance to make the playoffs if it wins this game and if it loses, from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season.
Seahawks
Now 58%
63%
with a win
39%
with a loss
This game is worth 24 points of playoff chance to them.
Raiders
Now 3%
9%
with a win
2%
with a loss
This game is worth 7 points of playoff chance to them.
How the forecast moved
LV went from 39% to 28% over 10 updates; the betting line was first on file Sunday, November 8 at 5:50 PM ET. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.
The pick
Live forecast: refreshes with lines and injury news until the game starts, then locks. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Seahawks 72%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 78.6% of 98 graded games.
- Market
- SEA -6.5
- ML SEA -290 / LV +235
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 80%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA -10
- SEA 81%
- Ratings vs. market
- +9.4 pts
- SEA: Elo 80.8%, market 71.4%
- Fair odds
- SEA -259
- LV +259 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Projected score
- SEA 23.5 – 17.0 LV
- Posted spread, posted total 40.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | LV | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1649 | 1374 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | −97 | −107 | SEA: Drew Lock (65%) or Jalen Milroe (35%), Sam Darnold out · LV: Fernando Mendoza, usually Kirk Cousins (against each team's recent starters, from the depth chart and injury report) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +250 Elo | SEA 80.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 76.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 79.9% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 72.2% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Adjusted: the scoring model’s ratings a game, which account for who they played. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| SEA | Stat | LV |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 3222.4 | Points scored | 26.48th of 32 |
| 4th of 3218.0 | Points allowed | 29.832nd of 32 |
| 8th of 32+4.4 | Margin | −3.320th of 32 |
| 19th of 325.22 | Yards per play | 5.3516th of 32 |
| 1st of 324.14 | Yards allowed per play | 6.0931st of 32 |
| 23rd of 321–2 | Road vs home | 1–319th of 32 |
| 11th of 321507 | Opponent Elo | 150314th of 32 |
| 4th of 321649 | Elo rating | 137427th of 32 |
| 8th of 32+1.6 | Offense, adjusted | −1.426th of 32 |
| 2nd of 32+2.7 | Defense, adjusted | −2.731st of 32 |
Player props
Projected from each player's share of his team's targets, carries and passes, next to DraftKings lines. Over chances follow the book's own number with its margin removed, which was the more accurate of the two on 17,384 graded NFL lines (log loss 0.689 vs our model's 0.721). Where our model disagreed with the price by 10+ points (tagged "model"), bets won 51% and returned −1.9% a bet over 4,421 graded lines. Not betting advice.
| Player | Role | Proj | L5 | Line | L10 | Over | Model | Parlay |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fernando MendozaLV | QB · 34 attempts | 217.8 | 48.0 | 179.5 | 0/1 games over this line | 51%* | 59% | |
| Drew LockSEA | QB · 31 attempts | 213.1 | 199.0 | 206.5 | 1/3 games over this line | 50%* | 46% |
* DraftKings lists these lines in ESPN's feed without prices, so each is read as the book's 50/50 point, the chance leans only slightly toward our model, and a parlay can't show what the book would pay for them.
What if…
Pick something that might happen in this game and see how every other line's chance moves if it does.
- Jalen Nailor (LV) over 11.5 receiving yards50%61%
- Michael Mayer (LV) over 21.5 receiving yards51%61%
- Ashton Jeanty (LV) over 25.5 receiving yards50%60%
- Brock Bowers (LV) over 59.5 receiving yards49%60%
- Tre Tucker (LV) over 25.5 receiving yards51%62%
- Jalen Nailor (LV) over 1.5 receptions50%58%
- Tre Tucker (LV) over 2.5 receptions51%58%
- Michael Mayer (LV) over 2.5 receptions51%59%
- Brock Bowers (LV) over 5.5 receptions49%57%
- Ashton Jeanty (LV) over 4.5 receptions48%56%
His other lines (6)
- Fernando Mendoza (LV) over 194.5 passing + rushing yards51%90%
- Fernando Mendoza (LV) over 17.5 completions52%77%
- Fernando Mendoza (LV) over 30.5 pass attempts51%71%
- Fernando Mendoza (LV) over 0.5 passing touchdowns52%67%
- Fernando Mendoza (LV) over 0.5 interceptions thrown49%47%
- Fernando Mendoza (LV) over 12.5 rushing yards45%44%
What each chance becomes if it happens, from how players' stats and results moved together in 467 past games, the same numbers behind same-game parlays (tested on games the fit never saw). It says how things are linked, not that any of it will happen.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Injury report
Current ESPN report. Elo values show what the model subtracts.
Seahawks
25 listedSam Darnold QB
−113 EloOutWorth 113 Elo more than Drew Lock
out
Drew Lock QB
−22 EloQuestionableWorth 63 Elo more than Jalen Milroe
Seahawks coach Mike Macdonald said Monday that Lock's tests on his oblique injury were "good," and the issue is something the QB is expected to manage ahead of Sunday's game against the Raiders, Gregg Bell of The Tacoma News Tribune reports.
Emanuel Wilson RB
ActiveWilson didn't log any snaps during Sunday's win over the Cardinals.
Cooper Kupp WR
ActiveKupp caught three of four targets for 32 yards during the Seahawks' 17-3 win over the Cardinals on Sunday.
Leonard Williams DT
Questionablequestionable
Brandon Pili DT
Questionablequestionable
Rashid Shaheed WR
Questionablequestionable
Quenton Nelson G
Doubtfuldoubtful
Uchenna Nwosu LB
Questionablequestionable
Charles Cross OT
Doubtfuldoubtful
George Holani RB
ActiveHolani didn't log any touches or targets Sunday in a 17-3 win over Arizona.
Tory Horton WR
ActiveHorton caught two passes for 22 yards on three targets in Sunday's 17-3 win over the Cardinals.
Raiders
25 listedJack Bech WR
ActiveBech caught one of two targets for nine yards Sunday in a loss to the 49ers.
Fernando Mendoza QB
ActiveMendoza will take over as the Raiders' new starting quarterback beginning with Sunday's game versus the Seahawks after Las Vegas traded Kirk Cousins to Minnesota on Tuesday, Adam Schefter of ESPN reports.
Thomas Booker IV DT
Questionablequestionable
Matt Gay PK
ActiveGay converted his only field-goal attempt and both of his extra-point tries during Las Vegas' loss to the 49ers on Sunday.
Aidan O'Connell QB
ActiveBryce Cabeldue G
ActiveMalik Benson WR
ActiveDalton Johnson S
ActiveDont'e Thornton Jr. WR
ActiveJalen Nailor WR
ActiveNailor caught two of four targets for nine yards during Sunday's 38-17 loss to the 49ers.
Michael Mayer TE
ActiveMayer caught all three of his targets for 37 yards in Sunday's 38-17 loss to the 49ers.
Mike Washington Jr. RB
ActiveWashington turned six carries into minus-three yards in Sunday's 38-17 loss to the 49ers.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  LV |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 3–4–2 | 6–3 |
| Last 10 | 3–4–2 | 6–3 |
| Favorite | 3–4–2 | 1–0 |
| Underdog | — | 5–3 |
| Overs–unders | 4–5 | 7–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–5 | 7–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.