Los Angeles Rams at Arizona Cardinals, NFL forecast
The short version
- The betting line has the Rams favored by 9.5, and the forecast follows it (Rams 78%) because lines have beaten every rating model we've tested.
- Our own ratings like the Rams more, at 83%.
- Behind our ratings' number: the Rams rate higher (1601 to 1375 Elo), the Cardinals are expected to start Carson Beck instead of Jacoby Brissett and the Cardinals have home field.
- Likely out: Puka Nacua (LAR).
What's at stake
Each team's chance to make the playoffs if it wins this game and if it loses, from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season.
Rams
Now 40%
44%
with a win
25%
with a loss
This game is worth 19 points of playoff chance to them.
Cardinals
Now <1%
<1%
with a win
<1%
with a loss
This game is worth 1 point of playoff chance to them.
How the forecast moved
ARI went from 24% to 22% over 10 updates; the betting line was first on file Saturday, November 7 at 9:50 PM ET. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.
Mon, Nov 9, 10:50 PM ESTGardner Minshew II out, Puka Nacua out · forecast ARI 21%
Tue, Nov 10, 10:24 PM ESTGardner Minshew II back · forecast ARI 22%
The pick
Live forecast: refreshes with lines and injury news until the game starts, then locks. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Rams 78%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 69.3% of 75 graded games.
- Market
- LAR -9.5
- ML LAR -425 / ARI +330
- Pre-line forecast
- LAR 82%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAR -11
- LAR 83%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.0 pts
- LAR: Elo 82.7%, market 77.7%
- Fair odds
- LAR -356
- ARI +356 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Projected score
- LAR 24.5 – 15.0 ARI
- Posted spread, posted total 39.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAR | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1601 | 1375 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +3 | −90 | LAR: Matthew Stafford · ARI: Carson Beck, usually Jacoby Brissett (against each team's recent starters, from the depth chart and injury report) |
| Injuries | −12 | — | Key absences: Puka Nacua |
| Elo ratings | LAR +271 Elo | LAR 82.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAR 81.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAR 82.4% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAR 78.1% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Adjusted: the scoring model’s ratings a game, which account for who they played. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| LAR | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 3223.8 | Points scored | 19.826th of 32 |
| 8th of 3220.1 | Points allowed | 28.331st of 32 |
| 11th of 32+3.7 | Margin | −8.630th of 32 |
| 9th of 325.66 | Yards per play | 4.7128th of 32 |
| 7th of 324.99 | Yards allowed per play | 5.6324th of 32 |
| 2nd of 323–1 | Road vs home | 0–328th of 32 |
| 20th of 321486 | Opponent Elo | 15601st of 32 |
| 8th of 321601 | Elo rating | 137526th of 32 |
| 6th of 32+2.3 | Offense, adjusted | −1.021st of 32 |
| 9th of 32+1.0 | Defense, adjusted | −2.730th of 32 |
Player props
Projected from each player's share of his team's targets, carries and passes, next to sportsbook lines once they post. Over chances follow the book's own number with its margin removed, which was the more accurate of the two on 17,384 graded NFL lines (log loss 0.689 vs our model's 0.721). Where our model disagreed with the price by 10+ points (tagged "model"), bets won 51% and returned −1.9% a bet over 4,421 graded lines. Not betting advice.
| Player | Role | Proj | L5 | Line | L10 | Over | Model | Parlay |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew StaffordLAR | QB · 37 attempts | 247.7 | 237.0 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Carson BeckARI | QB · 38 attempts | 230.2 | — | — | — | — | — | No line |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Injury report
Current ESPN report. Elo values show what the model subtracts.
Rams
25 listedPuka Nacua WR
−12 EloDoubtfulTeam receiving leader (70 REC, 715 YDS, 4 TD)
doubtful
Tyler Higbee TE
ActiveHigbee caught one of five targets for 13 yards during Sunday's 20-13 win over the Commanders.
Tutu Atwell WR
ActiveAtwell recorded two catches on five targets for 16 yards during the Rams' 20-13 win over the Commanders on Sunday.
Konata Mumpfield WR
ActiveMumpfield caught both of his targets for 20 yards during Sunday's 20-13 win over the Commanders.
Jordan Whittington WR
Injured ReserveWhittington (back) was placed on injured reserve Tuesday.
Xavier Smith WR
ActiveThe Rams signed Smith off the 49ers' practice squad Tuesday.
Trent McDuffie CB
Questionablequestionable
Joe Cardona LS
Questionablequestionable
Terrance Ferguson TE
Injured ReserveRams head coach Sean McVay acknowledged Monday during his appearance on the "Coach McVay Show" that he remains hopeful Ferguson (hamstring/ankle) will return from injured reserve this season, though he was unwilling to guarantee that the tight end will be activated by the time his 21-day evaluation window closes, Cameron DaSilva of USA Today reports. "I'm reluctant to get too far ahead of anything, just because -- but yes, that is something we'd want to avoid if he's not prepared," McVay said, regarding the possibility of Ferguson being shut down.
Colby Parkinson TE
ActiveParkinson notched four catches for 13 yards on four targets in a 20-13 win over Washington on Sunday.
Brandon McManus PK
ActiveMcManus made both of his field-goal tries and both PATs in Sunday's 20-13 win over the Commanders.
Steve Avila G
QuestionableCoach Sean McVay said Monday that the Rams haven't decided whether Avila will go to injured reserve with the hamstring injury he suffered during Sunday's game at Washington, Greg Beacham of the Associated Press reports.
Cardinals
25 listedEvan Hull RB
ActiveHull failed to haul in his lone target during the Cardinals' 17-3 loss to the Seahawks on Sunday.
Simi Fehoko WR
ActiveFehoko was unable to haul in his lone target in Sunday's 17-3 loss to the Seahawks.
Reggie Virgil WR
ActiveVirgil caught one of four targets for 25 yards during Sunday's 17-3 loss to the Seahawks on Sunday.
Elijah Higgins TE
ActiveHiggins caught both of his targets for 11 yards in Sunday's 17-3 loss to the Seahawks.
Devin Duvernay WR
ActiveDuvernay registered two catches for eight yards on two targets, returned three kickoffs for 64 yards and brought back two punts for 21 yards in Sunday's 17-3 loss to the Seahawks.
Michael Wilson WR
Injured ReserveThe Cardinals placed Wilson (neck) on injured reserve Tuesday.
Gardner Minshew II QB
Injured ReserveThe Cardinals placed Minshew (elbow) on injured reserve Tuesday, Darren Urban of the team's official site reports.
Joey Aguilar QB
ActiveThe Cardinals signed Aguilar off the Jaguars' practice squad Tuesday, Jeremy Fowler of ESPN.com reports.
Jayden Williams OT
Questionablequestionable
Bam Knight RB
Questionablequestionable
Jon Gaines II G
Questionablequestionable
Chad Ryland PK
ActiveRyland made his lone field-goal attempt during Arizona's loss versus the Seahawks on Sunday.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAR |  ARI |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 4–5 | 4–5 |
| Last 10 | 4–5 | 4–5 |
| Favorite | 4–4 | 0–1 |
| Underdog | 0–1 | 4–4 |
| Overs–unders | 4–5 | 5–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–5 | 5–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAR 5–2 ARI in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 7.