Miami Dolphins at Indianapolis Colts, NFL forecast
The short version
- The betting line has the Colts favored by 3.5, and the forecast follows it (Colts 64%) because lines have beaten every rating model we've tested.
- Our own ratings like the Colts more, at 69%.
- Behind our ratings' number: the Dolphins are expected to start Kyle McCord instead of Tua Tagovailoa and the Colts have home field.
- It's moved toward the Colts since we first logged it, from 55% to 64%.
What's at stake
Each team's chance to make the playoffs if it wins this game and if it loses, from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season.
Dolphins
Now <1%
<1%
with a win
0%
with a loss
Their playoff odds barely move on this one.
Colts
Now <1%
<1%
with a win
<1%
with a loss
Their playoff odds barely move on this one.
How the forecast moved
IND went from 55% to 64% over 8 updates; the betting line was first on file Saturday, November 7 at 9:50 PM ET. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.
The pick
Live forecast: refreshes with lines and injury news until the game starts, then locks. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Colts 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 63.9% of 119 graded games.
- Market
- IND -3.5
- ML MIA +160 / IND -192
- Pre-line forecast
- IND 71%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- IND -5.5
- IND 69%
- Ratings vs. market
- +6.0 pts
- IND: Elo 69.0%, market 63.1%
- Fair odds
- IND -174
- MIA +174 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Projected score
- MIA 17.5 – 21.0 IND
- Posted spread, posted total 38.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | IND | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1372 | 1362 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | −103 | +10 | MIA: Kyle McCord, usually Tua Tagovailoa · IND: Daniel Jones (against each team's recent starters, from the depth chart and injury report) |
| Elo ratings | IND +139 Elo | IND 69.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | IND 74.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | IND 70.6% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | IND 63.6% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Adjusted: the scoring model’s ratings a game, which account for who they played. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| MIA | Stat | IND |
|---|---|---|
| 31st of 3215.8 | Points scored | 20.424th of 32 |
| 23rd of 3225.0 | Points allowed | 27.730th of 32 |
| 31st of 32−9.3 | Margin | −7.228th of 32 |
| 22nd of 325.04 | Yards per play | 4.5031st of 32 |
| 23rd of 325.56 | Yards allowed per play | 6.1132nd of 32 |
| 27th of 321–3 | Road vs home | 1–319th of 32 |
| 8th of 321527 | Opponent Elo | 150413th of 32 |
| 28th of 321372 | Elo rating | 136229th of 32 |
| 29th of 32−2.0 | Offense, adjusted | +0.613th of 32 |
| 22nd of 32−1.0 | Defense, adjusted | −2.327th of 32 |
Player props
Projected from each player's share of his team's targets, carries and passes, next to sportsbook lines once they post. Over chances follow the book's own number with its margin removed, which was the more accurate of the two on 17,384 graded NFL lines (log loss 0.689 vs our model's 0.721). Where our model disagreed with the price by 10+ points (tagged "model"), bets won 51% and returned −1.9% a bet over 4,421 graded lines. Not betting advice.
| Player | Role | Proj | L5 | Line | L10 | Over | Model | Parlay |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel JonesIND | QB · 33 attempts | 208.4 | 193.6 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Kyle McCordMIA | QB · 28 attempts | 192.7 | — | — | — | — | — | No line |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Injury report
Current ESPN report. Elo values show what the model subtracts.
Dolphins
25 listedKevin Coleman Jr. WR
ActiveColeman wasn't targeted in Sunday's 19-9 loss to the Lions. He rushed one time for 16 yards.
Chris Bell WR
ActiveBell failed to catch his only target in Sunday's 19-9 loss to the Lions.
Malik Willis QB
Injured Reserveir
Zach Sieler DT
Injured ReserveThe Dolphins placed Sieler (biceps) on injured reserve Tuesday.
Kyle McCord QB
ActiveMcCord will step in as the Dolphins' starting quarterback beginning with Sunday's game at Indianapolis after Miami placed Malik Willis (core) on injured reserve Tuesday, Cameron Wolfe of NFL Network reports.
Jaylen Wright RB
Questionablequestionable
Zane Gonzalez PK
ActiveGonzalez reverted to the Dolphins' practice squad Monday, per the NFL's transaction log.
Kaytron Allen RB
ActiveAllen caught a 46-yard pass in Sunday's 19-9 loss to the Lions. He rushed one time for minus-1 yard.
Christian Haynes G
ActiveMarcellas Dial Jr. CB
ActiveJalen Tolbert WR
ActiveJustin Joly TE
Active
Colts
25 listedLaquon Treadwell WR
ActiveTreadwell logged 52 of the Colts' 64 snaps and was held without a reception on one target in Sunday's 27-23 loss to the Cowboys.
Deion Burks WR
ActiveBurks played 17 of the Colts' 64 offensive snaps in Sunday's 27-23 loss to the Cowboys, finishing with a zero-yard reception on his lone target.
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine WR
ActiveThe Colts signed Westbrook-Ikhine off their practice squad Tuesday.
Jonathan Taylor RB
ActiveThe Colts informed Taylor that he won't be traded before Tuesday's deadline, Tom Pelissero of Netflix reports.
Jalen Travis OT
Doubtfuldoubtful
Justin Walley CB
Questionablequestionable
Akeem Davis-Gaither LB
Questionablequestionable
A.J. Haulcy S
Questionablequestionable
DJ Giddens RB
ActiveGiddens was active but didn't play in Sunday's 27-23 loss to the Cowboys.
Riley Leonard QB
ActiveCharlie Heck OT
ActivePharaoh Brown TE
Active
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  IND |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 4–4 | 5–4 |
| Last 10 | 4–4 | 5–4 |
| Favorite | — | 1–1 |
| Underdog | 4–4 | 4–3 |
| Overs–unders | 3–5 | 5–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–5 | 5–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 0–2 IND in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.