Houston Texans at Cleveland Browns, NFL forecast
The short version
- The betting line has the Texans favored by 4.5, and the forecast follows it (Texans 66%) because lines have beaten every rating model we've tested.
- Our own ratings like the Texans less, at 58%.
- Behind our ratings' number: the Texans rate higher (1524 to 1436 Elo) and the Browns have home field.
- It's moved toward the Texans since we first logged it, from 62% to 66%.
What's at stake
Each team's chance to make the playoffs if it wins this game and if it loses, from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season.
Texans
Now 28%
37%
with a win
14%
with a loss
This game is worth 23 points of playoff chance to them.
Browns
Now 31%
46%
with a win
21%
with a loss
This game is worth 25 points of playoff chance to them.
How the forecast moved
CLE went from 38% to 34% over 10 updates; the betting line was first on file Saturday, November 7 at 9:50 PM ET. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.
Sun, Nov 8, 2:27 PM ESTDeshaun Watson out · forecast CLE 41%
Mon, Nov 9, 10:50 PM ESTJaylin Noel back · forecast CLE 34%
Tue, Nov 10, 10:24 PM ESTDeshaun Watson back · forecast CLE 34%
The pick
Live forecast: refreshes with lines and injury news until the game starts, then locks. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Texans 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 71.4% of 105 graded games.
- Market
- HOU -4.5
- ML HOU -230 / CLE +190
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU -2.5
- HOU 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.7 pts
- HOU: Elo 58.2%, market 66.9%
- Fair odds
- HOU -197
- CLE +197 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Projected score
- HOU 22.0 – 17.5 CLE
- Posted spread, posted total 39.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1524 | 1436 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +10 | +5 | HOU: C.J. Stroud · CLE: Deshaun Watson (65%) or Shedeur Sanders (35%) (against each team's recent starters, from the depth chart and injury report) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +58 Elo | HOU 58.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 69.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 61.2% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 66.3% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Adjusted: the scoring model’s ratings a game, which account for who they played. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| HOU | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 3226.1 | Points scored | 17.929th of 32 |
| 18th of 3224.0 | Points allowed | 21.813th of 32 |
| 14th of 32+2.1 | Margin | −3.923rd of 32 |
| 8th of 325.75 | Yards per play | 5.0023rd of 32 |
| 15th of 325.27 | Yards allowed per play | 5.2212th of 32 |
| 6th of 322–1 | Road vs home | 3–01st of 32 |
| 23rd of 321480 | Opponent Elo | 147227th of 32 |
| 15th of 321524 | Elo rating | 143620th of 32 |
| 10th of 32+1.1 | Offense, adjusted | −3.332nd of 32 |
| 6th of 32+1.3 | Defense, adjusted | 0.017th of 32 |
Player props
Projected from each player's share of his team's targets, carries and passes, next to DraftKings lines. Over chances follow the book's own number with its margin removed, which was the more accurate of the two on 17,384 graded NFL lines (log loss 0.689 vs our model's 0.721). Where our model disagreed with the price by 10+ points (tagged "model"), bets won 51% and returned −1.9% a bet over 4,421 graded lines. Not betting advice.
| Player | Role | Proj | L5 | Line | L10 | Over | Model | Parlay |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.J. StroudHOU | QB · 35 attempts | 22.1 | 21.8 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Deshaun WatsonCLE | QB · 33 attempts | 21.3 | 21.4 | 19.5 | 4/8 games over this line | 50%* | 55% |
* DraftKings lists these lines in ESPN's feed without prices, so each is read as the book's 50/50 point, the chance leans only slightly toward our model, and a parlay can't show what the book would pay for them.
What if…
Pick something that might happen in this game and see how every other line's chance moves if it does.
- Denzel Boston (CLE) over 3.5 receptions50%61%
- Harold Fannin Jr. (CLE) over 3.5 receptions51%61%
- Quinshon Judkins (CLE) over 1.5 receptions51%61%
- KC Concepcion (CLE) over 4.5 receptions49%59%
- Jerry Jeudy (CLE) over 1.5 receptions52%62%
- Denzel Boston (CLE) over 45.5 receiving yards50%59%
- Dylan Sampson (CLE) over 21.5 receiving yards50%59%
- KC Concepcion (CLE) over 47.5 receiving yards50%59%
- Harold Fannin Jr. (CLE) over 37.5 receiving yards51%60%
- Quinshon Judkins (CLE) over 5.5 receiving yards52%61%
His other lines (6)
- Deshaun Watson (CLE) over 30.5 pass attempts51%83%
- Deshaun Watson (CLE) over 238.5 passing + rushing yards50%74%
- Deshaun Watson (CLE) over 0.5 passing touchdowns51%58%
- Deshaun Watson (CLE) over 28.5 rushing yards48%50%
- Deshaun Watson (CLE) over 6.5 carries48%47%
- Deshaun Watson (CLE) over 0.5 interceptions thrown48%49%
What each chance becomes if it happens, from how players' stats and results moved together in 467 past games, the same numbers behind same-game parlays (tested on games the fit never saw). It says how things are linked, not that any of it will happen.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Injury report
Current ESPN report. Elo values show what the model subtracts.
Texans
25 listedFoster Moreau TE
ActiveMoreau didn't log any targets or touches Sunday in a 44-22 win against the Chargers.
Dare Ogunbowale RB
ActiveOgunbowale caught his only target for a three-yard gain Sunday in a 44-22 win over the Chargers.
David Montgomery RB
Questionablequestionable
Reed Blankenship S
Questionablequestionable
Cade Stover TE
ActiveNate Thomas OT
ActiveBraden Smith OT
ActiveFebechi Nwaiwu G
ActiveKa'imi Fairbairn PK
ActiveFairbairn went 3-for-3 on field-goal tries and made all five of his PATs during Sunday's 44-22 win over the Chargers.
Woody Marks RB
ActiveMarks turned 18 carries into 70 yards and hauled in one of four targets for four yards during Sunday's 44-22 road win over the Chargers.
Dalton Schultz TE
ActiveSchultz caught two of four targets for 42 yards in Sunday's 44-22 win over the Chargers.
Marvin Harrison Jr. WR
ActiveHarrison caught two of three targets for 20 yards during Sunday's 44-22 win over the Chargers.
Browns
25 listedDeshaun Watson QB
−13 EloQuestionableWorth 36 Elo more than Shedeur Sanders
questionable
Maliek Collins DT
Questionablequestionable
Noah Igbinoghene CB
ActiveTaylen Green QB
ActiveParker Brailsford C
ActiveJustin Jefferson LB
ActiveAndre Szmyt PK
ActiveSzmyt went 3-for-3 on field-goal attempts and made his only PAT during Sunday's 23-22 overtime loss to New Orleans.
Jerry Jeudy WR
ActiveJeudy caught two of four targets for 37 yards in Sunday's 23-22 overtime loss to the Saints.
Dylan Sampson RB
ActiveSampson rushed eight times for 21 yards while catching three of six targets for 27 yards during Sunday's 23-22 overtime loss against the Saints.
Harold Fannin Jr. TE
ActiveFannin caught both his targets for 42 yards and a touchdown in Sunday's 23-22 overtime loss to the Saints.
KC Concepcion WR
ActiveConcepcion caught four of six targets for 85 yards and a touchdown in Sunday's 23-22 overtime loss to the Saints. He added three yards on his only carry.
Denzel Boston WR
ActiveBoston caught six of seven targets for 98 yards in Sunday's 23-22 overtime loss to the Saints.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 3–5 | 6–3 |
| Last 10 | 3–5 | 6–3 |
| Favorite | 2–4 | 1–0 |
| Underdog | 1–1 | 5–3 |
| Overs–unders | 5–3 | 5–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–3 | 5–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 1–1 CLE in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.