Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals, NFL forecast
The short version
- The betting line has the Bengals favored by 3.5, and the forecast follows it (Bengals 61%) because lines have beaten every rating model we've tested.
- Our own ratings like the Bengals less, at 58%.
- Behind our ratings' number: the Bengals have home field and quarterback changes favor the Bengals.
What's at stake
Each team's chance to make the playoffs if it wins this game and if it loses, from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season.
Steelers
Now 86%
94%
with a win
81%
with a loss
This game is worth 12 points of playoff chance to them.
Bengals
Now 94%
97%
with a win
90%
with a loss
This game is worth 7 points of playoff chance to them.
How the forecast moved
CIN went from 61% to 61% over 8 updates; the betting line was first on file Saturday, November 7 at 9:50 PM ET. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.
The pick
Live forecast: refreshes with lines and injury news until the game starts, then locks. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Bengals 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 63.9% of 119 graded games.
- Market
- CIN -3.5
- ML PIT +150 / CIN -180
- Pre-line forecast
- CIN 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CIN -2
- CIN 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.0 pts
- CIN: Elo 57.6%, market 61.6%
- Fair odds
- CIN -159
- PIT +159 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Projected score
- PIT 23.0 – 26.5 CIN
- Posted spread, posted total 49.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1573 | 1574 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +10 | +26 | PIT: Aaron Rodgers · CIN: Joe Burrow (against each team's recent starters, from the depth chart and injury report) |
| Elo ratings | CIN +53 Elo | CIN 57.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CIN 70.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CIN 60.9% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CIN 61.3% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Adjusted: the scoring model’s ratings a game, which account for who they played. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| PIT | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 3222.5 | Points scored | 30.02nd of 32 |
| 4th of 3218.0 | Points allowed | 21.914th of 32 |
| 7th of 32+4.5 | Margin | +8.14th of 32 |
| 20th of 325.19 | Yards per play | 6.083rd of 32 |
| 6th of 324.98 | Yards allowed per play | 5.7127th of 32 |
| 23rd of 321–2 | Road vs home | 2–114th of 32 |
| 28th of 321469 | Opponent Elo | 148521st of 32 |
| 12th of 321573 | Elo rating | 157411th of 32 |
| 19th of 32−0.5 | Offense, adjusted | +2.93rd of 32 |
| 7th of 32+1.2 | Defense, adjusted | −1.724th of 32 |
Player props
Projected from each player's share of his team's targets, carries and passes, next to DraftKings lines. Over chances follow the book's own number with its margin removed, which was the more accurate of the two on 17,384 graded NFL lines (log loss 0.689 vs our model's 0.721). Where our model disagreed with the price by 10+ points (tagged "model"), bets won 51% and returned −1.9% a bet over 4,421 graded lines. Not betting advice.
| Player | Role | Proj | L5 | Line | L10 | Over | Model | Parlay |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe BurrowCIN | QB · 38 attempts | 277.6 | 328.6 | 287.5 | 4/10 games over this line | 49%* | 41% | |
| Aaron RodgersPIT | QB · 34 attempts | 235.1 | 234.2 | 239.5 | 4/10 games over this line | 49%* | 42% |
* DraftKings lists these lines in ESPN's feed without prices, so each is read as the book's 50/50 point, the chance leans only slightly toward our model, and a parlay can't show what the book would pay for them.
What if…
Pick something that might happen in this game and see how every other line's chance moves if it does.
- Mike Gesicki (CIN) over 23.5 receiving yards50%61%
- Dohnte Meyers (CIN) over 20.5 receiving yards50%61%
- Tee Higgins (CIN) over 77.5 receiving yards50%60%
- Chase Brown (CIN) over 26.5 receiving yards49%60%
- Ja'Marr Chase (CIN) over 92.5 receiving yards49%60%
- Tee Higgins (CIN) over 5.5 receptions50%58%
- Chase Brown (CIN) over 4.5 receptions49%58%
- Mike Gesicki (CIN) over 2.5 receptions49%57%
- Dohnte Meyers (CIN) over 2.5 receptions49%57%
- Ja'Marr Chase (CIN) over 8.5 receptions48%56%
His other lines (4)
- Joe Burrow (CIN) over 26.5 completions49%76%
- Joe Burrow (CIN) over 37.5 pass attempts50%70%
- Joe Burrow (CIN) over 2.5 passing touchdowns49%64%
- Joe Burrow (CIN) over 0.5 interceptions thrown49%47%
What each chance becomes if it happens, from how players' stats and results moved together in 467 past games, the same numbers behind same-game parlays (tested on games the fit never saw). It says how things are linked, not that any of it will happen.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Injury report
Current ESPN report. Elo values show what the model subtracts.
Steelers
25 listedBen Skowronek WR
Questionablequestionable
Doneiko Slaughter CB
Questionablequestionable
Brandin Echols CB
Questionablequestionable
Chris Boswell PK
ActiveBoswell made two of his three field-goal attempts and all three PATs in the Steelers' 27-6 win over the Browns on Sunday.
Will Howard QB
ActiveDrew Allar QB
ActiveEli Heidenreich RB
ActiveMichael Pittman Jr. WR
Injured ReservePittman (foot) said Monday that he resumed running last week as part of a program to return, but the wideout acknowledged that he's without a clear timeline to be activated from injured reserve, Ray Fittipaldo of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reports.
Germie Bernard WR
ActiveBernard caught all five of his targets for 30 yards during Sunday's 27-6 win against Cleveland.
Pat Freiermuth TE
ActiveFreiermuth caught both of his targets for 35 yards in Sunday's 27-6 win over the Browns. He added one rushing attempt for a one-yard touchdown.
Darnell Washington TE
ActiveWashington caught three of five targets for 94 yards during Sunday's 27-6 win over the Browns.
Rico Dowdle RB
ActiveDowdle rushed 15 times for 56 yards and a touchdown in the Steelers' 27-6 win over the Browns on Sunday.
Bengals
25 listedDohnte Meyers WR
ActiveMeyers caught two passes for 47 yards on three targets in Sunday's 34-17 win over the Falcons.
Kyle Dugger S
Questionablequestionable
Samaje Perine RB
ActivePerine rushed 11 times for 43 yards during Sunday's 34-17 win over the Falcons.
Myles Hinton OT
ActiveConnor Lew C
ActiveLandon Robinson DT
ActiveAndrei Iosivas WR
Injured ReserveHead coach Zac Taylor said Monday that Iosivas is doing well in his recovery from left thumb surgery, and the Bengals will "continue to work through this week" to determine when the receiver might return from injured reserve, Laurel Pfahler of the Dayton Daily News reports.
Evan McPherson PK
ActiveMcPherson went 2-for-2 on field-goal attempts while making all four of his extra-point tries during Sunday's 34-17 win over the Falcons.
Mike Gesicki TE
ActiveGesicki caught both of his targets for 11 yards during Sunday's 34-17 win versus Atlanta.
Chase Brown RB
ActiveBrown carried the ball nine times for 57 yards and caught all three of his targets for 18 yards in Sunday's 34-17 win over the Falcons.
Tee Higgins WR
ActiveHiggins caught five of six targets for 32 yards and two touchdowns in Sunday's 34-17 win over Atlanta.
Ja'Marr Chase WR
ActiveChase caught 10 of 12 targets for 155 yards and a touchdown in Sunday's 34-17 win over the Falcons.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PIT |  CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 6–2 | 4–4 |
| Last 10 | 6–2 | 4–4 |
| Favorite | 5–1 | 3–4 |
| Underdog | 1–1 | 1–0 |
| Overs–unders | 4–4 | 5–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–4 | 5–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PIT 5–2 CIN in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 7.