Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers, NFL forecast
The short version
- The betting line has the Packers favored by 3.5, and the forecast follows it (Packers 60%) because lines have beaten every rating model we've tested.
- Our own ratings lean the other way, to the Vikings at 57%. When the two disagree, the line has been right more often.
- Behind our ratings' number: the Vikings are expected to start Kirk Cousins instead of Kyler Murray, the Packers have home field and the Vikings rate higher (1611 to 1575 Elo).
What's at stake
Each team's chance to make the playoffs if it wins this game and if it loses, from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season.
Vikings
Now 86%
93%
with a win
77%
with a loss
This game is worth 16 points of playoff chance to them.
Packers
Now 49%
63%
with a win
37%
with a loss
This game is worth 25 points of playoff chance to them.
How the forecast moved
GB went from 58% to 60% over 9 updates; the betting line was first on file Saturday, November 7 at 9:50 PM ET. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.
Sun, Nov 8, 3:22 PM ESTMarShawn Lloyd out · forecast GB 49%
Mon, Nov 9, 10:50 PM ESTMarShawn Lloyd back · forecast GB 57%
Tue, Nov 10, 10:24 PM ESTKyler Murray back · forecast GB 60%
The pick
Live forecast: refreshes with lines and injury news until the game starts, then locks. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Packers 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 62.9% of 143 graded games.
- Market
- GB -3.5
- ML MIN +145 / GB -175
- Pre-line forecast
- GB 44%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN -2
- GB 43%
- Ratings vs. market
- −18.2 pts
- GB: Elo 42.7%, market 60.9%
- Fair odds
- GB -148
- MIN +148 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Projected score
- MIN 19.0 – 22.5 GB
- Posted spread, posted total 41.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | GB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1611 | 1575 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +63 | +12 | MIN: Kirk Cousins, usually Kyler Murray · GB: Jordan Love (against each team's recent starters, from the depth chart and injury report) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +51 Elo | MIN 57.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 53.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 56.3% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | GB 59.6% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Adjusted: the scoring model’s ratings a game, which account for who they played. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| MIN | Stat | GB |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 3218.3 | Points scored | 24.012th of 32 |
| 1st of 3214.5 | Points allowed | 21.211th of 32 |
| 10th of 32+3.8 | Margin | +2.812th of 32 |
| 30th of 324.65 | Yards per play | 5.5910th of 32 |
| 2nd of 324.60 | Yards allowed per play | 4.885th of 32 |
| 2nd of 323–1 | Road vs home | 3–19th of 32 |
| 7th of 321530 | Opponent Elo | 150115th of 32 |
| 7th of 321611 | Elo rating | 157510th of 32 |
| 27th of 32−1.8 | Offense, adjusted | +1.012th of 32 |
| 1st of 32+3.4 | Defense, adjusted | +1.18th of 32 |
Player props
Projected from each player's share of his team's targets, carries and passes, next to DraftKings lines. Over chances follow the book's own number with its margin removed, which was the more accurate of the two on 17,384 graded NFL lines (log loss 0.689 vs our model's 0.721). Where our model disagreed with the price by 10+ points (tagged "model"), bets won 51% and returned −1.9% a bet over 4,421 graded lines. Not betting advice.
| Player | Role | Proj | L5 | Line | L10 | Over | Model | Parlay |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan LoveGB | QB · 33 attempts | 237.7 | 315.4 | 257.5 | 8/10 games over this line | 49%* | 37% | |
| Kirk CousinsMIN | QB · 29 attempts | 208.8 | 262.8 | 228.5 | 7/10 games over this line | 49%* | 36% |
* DraftKings lists these lines in ESPN's feed without prices, so each is read as the book's 50/50 point, the chance leans only slightly toward our model, and a parlay can't show what the book would pay for them.
What if…
Pick something that might happen in this game and see how every other line's chance moves if it does.
- Matthew Golden (GB) over 68.5 receiving yards50%61%
- Christian Watson (GB) over 75.5 receiving yards50%61%
- Tucker Kraft (GB) over 37.5 receiving yards49%60%
- Savion Williams (GB) over 19.5 receiving yards48%59%
- Matthew Golden (GB) over 5.5 receptions49%58%
- Christian Watson (GB) over 4.5 receptions50%58%
- Tucker Kraft (GB) over 4.5 receptions48%56%
- Savion Williams (GB) over 2.5 receptions47%55%
- Kaleb Johnson (GB) over 32.5 rushing yards49%46%
- Pierre Strong Jr. (GB) over 10.5 rushing yards51%48%
His other lines (5)
- Jordan Love (GB) over 264.5 passing + rushing yards49%89%
- Jordan Love (GB) over 22.5 completions49%76%
- Jordan Love (GB) over 1.5 passing touchdowns50%65%
- Jordan Love (GB) over 0.5 interceptions thrown49%47%
- Jordan Love (GB) over 3.5 rushing yards50%49%
What each chance becomes if it happens, from how players' stats and results moved together in 467 past games, the same numbers behind same-game parlays (tested on games the fit never saw). It says how things are linked, not that any of it will happen.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Injury report
Current ESPN report. Elo values show what the model subtracts.
Vikings
25 listedDeeJay Dallas RB
ActiveDallas caught his only target for a two-yard gain in Monday's Week 9 loss to the Bills.
Myles Price WR
ActivePrice caught one of his four targets for six yards in a Week 9 loss to Buffalo on Monday Night Football. He also gained 12 yards on one punt return and brought back four kickoffs for 124 yards.
Will Reichard PK
ActiveReichard made both of his field-goal attempts during the Vikings' 23-6 loss to the Bills on Monday.
Kyler Murray QB
Doubtfuldoubtful
Max Brosmer QB
ActiveBrosmer completed six of seven attempts for 58 yards in Monday night's 23-6 loss to the Bills.
Odell Beckham Jr. WR
ActiveThe Vikings released Beckham on Tuesday, Craig Peters of the team's official site reports.
Jauan Jennings WR
Questionablequestionable
Caleb Banks DT
ActiveCharles Demmings CB
ActiveJakobe Thomas S
ActiveJordan Addison WR
ActiveAddison secured two of three targets for 28 yards in the Vikings' 23-6 loss to the Bills on Monday night.
Aaron Jones Sr. RB
ActiveJones rushed five times for 16 yards and brought in his only target for five yards in the Vikings' 23-6 loss to the Bills on Monday night.
Packers
25 listedJonnu Smith TE
ActiveSmith didn't log a target or touch in a 45-27 win over the Patriots on Sunday.
Pierre Strong Jr. RB
ActiveStrong rushed eight times for 22 yards in Sunday's 45-27 win over the Patriots. He added two catches for 11 yards on two targets.
Kaleb Johnson RB
ActiveJohnson could serve as the Packers' lead option on the ground in Sunday's game against the Vikings with Josh Jacobs (finger) expected to miss multiple weeks and with the status of MarShawn Lloyd (knee) uncertain, Matt Schneidman of The Athletic reports.
Josh Whyle TE
Questionablequestionable
Sean Rhyan G
Questionablequestionable
MarShawn Lloyd RB
Questionablequestionable
Zaire Franklin LB
Doubtfuldoubtful
Travis Glover OT
Questionablequestionable
Josh Jacobs RB
Outout
Chris Brooks RB
Injured ReserveAs Week 10 approaches, Rob Demovsky of ESPN.com indicates that Brooks (ankle) may be ready to return from IR.
Donovan Jennings G
ActiveTrey Smack PK
ActiveSmack went 3-for-3 on field-goal attempts and made all four of his PATs during Sunday's 45-27 win against the Patriots.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  GB |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 4–4 | 5–3–1 |
| Last 10 | 4–4 | 5–3–1 |
| Favorite | 2–2 | 3–2 |
| Underdog | 2–2 | 2–1–1 |
| Overs–unders | 1–7 | 3–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 1–7 | 3–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 5–2 GB in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 7.