New York Rangers at Calgary Flames, NHL forecast
The short version
- The betting market favors the Rangers, and the forecast follows it (Rangers 56%) because lines have beaten every rating model we've tested.
- Our own ratings call it about even.
- Behind our ratings' number: the Flames have home ice and the Rangers rate higher (1486 to 1456 Elo).
- It's moved toward the Rangers since we first logged it, from 52% to 56%.
What's at stake
Each team's chance to make the playoffs if it wins this game and if it loses, from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season.
Rangers
Now 34%
38%
with a win
30%
with a loss
This game is worth 8 points of playoff chance to them.
Flames
Now 17%
19%
with a win
15%
with a loss
This game is worth 4 points of playoff chance to them.
How the forecast moved
CGY went from 48% to 44% over 6 updates; the betting line was first on file Tuesday, November 10 at 10:24 PM ET. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.
The pick
Live forecast: refreshes with lines and injury news until the game starts, then locks. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Rangers 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- NYR 56%
- ML NYR -142 / CGY +120
- Pre-line forecast
- NYR 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYR 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.4 pts
- NYR: Elo 49.9%, market 56.3%
- Fair odds
- NYR -129
- CGY +129 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Projected score
- NYR 2.9 – 2.6 CGY
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYR | CGY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1486 | 1456 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +1 | −3 | NYR: Dylan Garand: team allows 0.02 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈13 weighted starts) · CGY: Dustin Wolf: team allows 0.08 more goals than with its usual starter (≈46 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CGY +1 Elo | CGY 50.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYR 53.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYR 52.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYR 56.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NYR | Stat | CGY |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 322.9 | Goals scored | 2.629th of 32 |
| 7th of 322.9 | Goals allowed | 3.524th of 32 |
| 16th of 32+0.1 | Margin | −0.928th of 32 |
| 16th of 3249.5% | Shot share | 47.7%26th of 32 |
| 6th of 3290.2% | Save percentage | 88.7%23rd of 32 |
| 21st of 324–6 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 32 |
| 27th of 322–7 | Road vs home | 6–415th of 32 |
| 16th of 321499 | Opponent Elo | 149720th of 32 |
| 20th of 321486 | Elo rating | 145629th of 32 |
Player props
Projected from ice time and per-minute production, and each goalie's expected shots against, next to DraftKings lines. Over chances follow the book's own number with its margin removed, which was the more accurate of the two on 159,528 graded NHL lines (log loss 0.549 vs our model's 0.551). Where our model disagreed with the price by 10+ points (tagged "model"), bets won 57% and returned +6.9% a bet over 2,488 graded lines. Not betting advice.
| Player | Role | Proj | L5 | Line | L10 | Over | Model | Parlay |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam FoxNYR | 25 min | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 7/10 games over this line | 60% | 57% | |
| Mika ZibanejadNYR | 21 min | 0.8 | 1.0 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| J.T. MillerNYR | 20 min | 0.8 | 0.6 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Alexis LafreniereNYR | 19 min | 0.7 | 0.4 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Matt CoronatoCGY | 18 min | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 5/10 games over this line | 51% | 44% | |
| Joel FarabeeCGY | 20 min | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 7/10 games over this line | 50% | 43% | |
| Matvei GridinCGY | 17 min | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 4/10 games over this line | 47% | 43% | |
| Pavel DorofeyevNYR | 17 min | 0.6 | 0.6 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Tye KartyeNYR | 20 min | 0.6 | 0.6 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Morgan FrostCGY | 16 min | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 5/10 games over this line | 45% | 38% | |
| Gabe PerreaultNYR | 17 min | 0.5 | 0.4 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Mikael BacklundCGY | 19 min | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 3/10 games over this line | 37% | 34% | |
| Will CuylleNYR | 17 min | 0.4 | 0.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Yegor SharangovichCGY | 16 min | 0.4 | 0.6 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Oliver BjorkstrandNYR | 13 min | 0.4 | 0.6 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Zayne ParekhCGY | 20 min | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 5/10 games over this line | 38% | 30% | |
| Ryan StromeCGY | 14 min | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 3/10 games over this line | 33% | 30% | |
| Simon NemecCGY | 21 min | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 3/10 games over this line | 32% | 28% | |
| Vladislav GavrikovNYR | 22 min | 0.3 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Aydar SunievCGY | 13 min | 0.3 | 0.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Adam KlapkaCGY | 13 min | 0.3 | 0.4 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Martin PospisilCGY | 14 min | 0.3 | 0.4 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Noah LabaNYR | 13 min | 0.3 | 0.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Eeli TolvanenNYR | 10 min | 0.2 | 0.4 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Marcus PetterssonNYR | 21 min | 0.2 | 0.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Zach WhitecloudCGY | 21 min | 0.2 | 0.4 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Jonathan CastagnaCGY | 12 min | 0.2 | 0.4 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Maxim TsyplakovCGY | 11 min | 0.2 | 0.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Jake MiddletonCGY | 19 min | 0.2 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Braden SchneiderNYR | 20 min | 0.2 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Yan KuznetsovCGY | 18 min | 0.2 | 0.4 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Matthew RobertsonNYR | 14 min | 0.2 | 0.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Scott MorrowNYR | 12 min | 0.2 | 0.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Joel HanleyCGY | 17 min | 0.1 | 0.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
What if…
Pick something that might happen in this game and see how every other line's chance moves if it does.
- Flames win44%34%
- Rangers win56%66%
What each chance becomes if it happens, from how players' stats and results moved together in 2,092 past games, the same numbers behind same-game parlays (tested on games the fit never saw). It says how things are linked, not that any of it will happen.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Injury report
Current ESPN report. Elo values show what the model subtracts.
Rangers
6 listedAlberts Smits D
Injured Reserveir
Sean Durzi D
Injured ReserveDurzi (undisclosed) was put on injured reserve Thursday, per Mollie Walker of the New York Post.
Igor Shesterkin G
Injured ReserveShesterkin will require surgery and a lengthy rehab process to address his season-ending right knee injury, Vince Z. Mercogliano of The Athletic reports Sunday.
Joe Veleno C
Injured ReserveVeleno (lower body) was placed on long-term injured reserve Saturday, Vince Z. Mercogliano of The Athletic reports.
Aidan Thompson C
Injured Reserveir-nr
Adam Sykora LW
Injured Reserveir
Flames
4 listedKevin Bahl D
Injured ReserveBahl will undergo surgery for a ruptured Achilles tendon and won't play again in the 2026-27 season, the Flames announced Sunday.
Jonathan Huberdeau LW
Injured ReserveHuberdeau (hip) took the ice in a regular jersey Friday, Pat Steinberg of QR Calgary 770 AM reports.
Connor Zary C
Outout
Samuel Honzek LW
Injured Reserveir
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYR |  CGY |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 9–9 | 9–9 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 5–4 | 0–2 |
| Underdog | 4–5 | 9–7 |
| Overs–unders | 9–9 | 9–9 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYR 3–3 CGY in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 6.