New York Rangers at Edmonton Oilers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors EDM; hover for each play.
How the forecast moved
EDM went from 61% to 58% over 5 updates; the betting line was first on file Sunday, November 8 at 2:27 PM ET. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Jaroslav ChmelarGoals1
- Mika ZibanejadAssists1
- Jaroslav ChmelarPoints1
Oilers- Leon DraisaitlGoals2
- Mattias EkholmAssists1
- Leon DraisaitlPoints2
Scoring summary
- P318:47Leon Draisaitl Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: none1–3
- P25:05Jaroslav Chmelar Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Mika Zibanejad (13)1–2
- P22:59Leon Draisaitl Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Vasily Podkolzin (6), Mattias Ekholm (6)0–2
- P16:42Connor McDavid Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: none0–1
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P16:42Connor McDavid Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: noneNYR 0 – 1 EDM · EDM 58% → 72% +14EDM 58% → 72%+14 pts
- P22:59Leon Draisaitl Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Vasily Podkolzin (6), Mattias Ekholm (6)NYR 0 – 2 EDM · EDM 74% → 86% +13EDM 74% → 86%+13 pts
- P25:05Jaroslav Chmelar Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Mika Zibanejad (13)NYR 1 – 2 EDM · NYR 13% → 26% +13NYR 13% → 26%+13 pts
- P318:47Leon Draisaitl Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: noneNYR 1 – 3 EDM · EDM >99% → >99% +0EDM >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Oilers 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- EDM 58%
- ML NYR +130 / EDM -155
- Pre-line forecast
- EDM 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- EDM 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.2 pts
- EDM: Elo 62.5%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- EDM -140
- NYR +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYR 3.0 – 3.5 EDM
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYR | EDM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1489 | 1534 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −18 | −4 | NYR: Joonas Korpisalo: team allows 0.44 more goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) · EDM: Devon Levi: team allows 0.10 more goals than with its usual starter (≈26 weighted starts) |
| Injuries | — | −5 | Key absences: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Colton Dach |
| Elo ratings | EDM +89 Elo | EDM 62.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | EDM 60.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | EDM 60.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | EDM 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NYR | Stat | EDM |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 323.1 | Goals scored | 4.21st of 32 |
| 7th of 322.9 | Goals allowed | 3.110th of 32 |
| 13th of 32+0.2 | Margin | +1.13rd of 32 |
| 18th of 3249.0% | Shot share | 49.6%15th of 32 |
| 5th of 3290.3% | Save percentage | 89.2%14th of 32 |
| 22nd of 324–6 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 32 |
| 26th of 322–6 | Road vs home | 5–520th of 32 |
| 18th of 321497 | Opponent Elo | 147632nd of 32 |
| 18th of 321489 | Elo rating | 15349th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYR |  EDM |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 9–8 | 12–6 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 5–4 | 8–5 |
| Underdog | 4–4 | 4–1 |
| Overs–unders | 9–8 | 10–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYR 2–5 EDM in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 7.