New York Rangers at Edmonton Oilers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors EDM; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Artemi PanarinGoals2
- Alexis LafreniereAssists1
- Artemi PanarinPoints2
Oilers- Evan BouchardGoals1
- Mattias JanmarkAssists2
- Leon DraisaitlPoints2
Scoring summary
- P316:29Artemi Panarin Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Alexis Lafrenière (8)2–6
- P39:37Connor McDavid Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Troy Stecher (1)1–6
- P35:49Connor McDavid Goal (10) Tip-In, assists: Evan Bouchard (9), Kasperi Kapanen (1)1–5
- P215:02Artemi Panarin Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Adam Fox (17)1–4
- P211:58Evan Bouchard Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Mattias Janmark (9), Adam Henrique (4)0–4
- P28:54Leon Draisaitl Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (17)0–3
- P119:51Darnell Nurse Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Mattias Janmark (8), Connor Brown (4)0–2
- P117:34Vasily Podkolzin Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Leon Draisaitl (14), Connor Brown (3)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P117:34Vasily Podkolzin Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Leon Draisaitl (14), Connor Brown (3)NYR 0 – 1 EDM · EDM 56% → 72% +16EDM 56% → 72%+16 pts
- P119:51Darnell Nurse Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Mattias Janmark (8), Connor Brown (4)NYR 0 – 2 EDM · EDM 72% → 85% +13EDM 72% → 85%+13 pts
- P28:54Leon Draisaitl Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (17)NYR 0 – 3 EDM · EDM 87% → 95% +8EDM 87% → 95%+8 pts
- P211:58Evan Bouchard Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Mattias Janmark (9), Adam Henrique (4)NYR 0 – 4 EDM · EDM 96% → 99% +3EDM 96% → 99%+3 pts
- P215:02Artemi Panarin Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Adam Fox (17)NYR 1 – 4 EDM · NYR <1% → 3% +3NYR <1% → 3%+3 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Oilers 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- EDM 57%
- ML NYR +125 / EDM -145
- Pre-line forecast
- EDM 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- EDM 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.0 pts
- EDM: Elo 49.1%, market 57.1%
- Fair odds
- EDM -133
- NYR +133 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYR 3.0 – 3.5 EDM
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYR | EDM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1558 | 1533 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +12 | −4 | NYR: Jonathan Quick: team allows 0.29 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈22 weighted starts) · EDM: Stuart Skinner: team allows 0.11 more goals than with its usual starter (≈42 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYR +6 Elo | NYR 50.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | EDM 56.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | EDM 55.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | EDM 57.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NYR | Stat | EDM |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 323.5 | Goals scored | 2.821st of 32 |
| 3rd of 322.4 | Goals allowed | 3.221st of 32 |
| 5th of 32+1.1 | Margin | −0.421st of 32 |
| 22nd of 3248.8% | Shot share | 56.4%2nd of 32 |
| 1st of 3292.7% | Save percentage | 88.2%29th of 32 |
| 6th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 32 |
| 2nd of 327–2 | Road vs home | 4–730th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYR |  EDM |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 8–10 | 6–15 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 7–10 | 4–14 |
| Underdog | 1–0 | 2–1 |
| Overs–unders | 8–10 | 8–13 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYR 1–1 EDM in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 2.