Edmonton Oilers at Ottawa Senators, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors OTT; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Oilers- Leon DraisaitlGoals1
- Leon DraisaitlAssists2
- Leon DraisaitlPoints3
Senators- Tim StutzleGoals1
- Nick JensenAssists2
- Nick JensenPoints2
Scoring summary
- P317:36Josh Norris Goal (8) Tip-In, assists: Nick Jensen (7), Brady Tkachuk (11)5–2
- P311:50Ryan Nugent-Hopkins Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Derek Ryan (2), Brett Kulak (4)5–1
- P24:39Leon Draisaitl Goal (14) Backhand, assists: Connor McDavid (15), Adam Henrique (2)4–1
- P119:19Connor McDavid Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Evan Bouchard (8), Leon Draisaitl (13)3–1
- P116:15Connor McDavid Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Vasily Podkolzin (5), Evan Bouchard (7)2–1
- P115:40Tim Stützle Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Drake Batherson (10), Nick Jensen (6)1–1
- P13:46Evan Bouchard Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Leon Draisaitl (12), Vasily Podkolzin (4)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P13:46Evan Bouchard Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Leon Draisaitl (12), Vasily Podkolzin (4)EDM 1 – 0 OTT · EDM 47% → 62% +15EDM 47% → 62%+15 pts
- P115:40Tim Stützle Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Drake Batherson (10), Nick Jensen (6)EDM 1 – 1 OTT · OTT 36% → 53% +17OTT 36% → 53%+17 pts
- P116:15Connor McDavid Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Vasily Podkolzin (5), Evan Bouchard (7)EDM 2 – 1 OTT · EDM 47% → 64% +17EDM 47% → 64%+17 pts
- P119:19Connor McDavid Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Evan Bouchard (8), Leon Draisaitl (13)EDM 3 – 1 OTT · EDM 65% → 79% +15EDM 65% → 79%+15 pts
- P24:39Leon Draisaitl Goal (14) Backhand, assists: Connor McDavid (15), Adam Henrique (2)EDM 4 – 1 OTT · EDM 81% → 91% +10EDM 81% → 91%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Senators 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- OTT 53%
- ML EDM +105 / OTT -125
- Pre-line forecast
- OTT 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OTT 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.8 pts
- OTT: Elo 55.1%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- OTT -114
- EDM +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- EDM 3.2 – 3.3 OTT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | EDM | OTT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1533 | 1490 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | EDM on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −4 | +9 | EDM: Stuart Skinner: team allows 0.10 more goals than with its usual starter (≈42 weighted starts) · OTT: Linus Ullmark: team allows 0.24 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈31 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | OTT +35 Elo | OTT 55.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OTT 51.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OTT 51.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OTT 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| EDM | Stat | OTT |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 322.6 | Goals scored | 3.213th of 32 |
| 18th of 323.2 | Goals allowed | 3.117th of 32 |
| 21st of 32−0.5 | Margin | +0.113th of 32 |
| 2nd of 3256.7% | Shot share | 54.7%3rd of 32 |
| 31st of 3288.3% | Save percentage | 89.1%22nd of 32 |
| 12th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 32 |
| 11th of 325–4 | Road vs home | 5–310th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  EDM |  OTT |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 5–14 | 9–8 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 4–13 | 2–5 |
| Underdog | 1–1 | 7–3 |
| Overs–unders | 6–13 | 6–11 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
EDM 1–1 OTT in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.