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Edmonton Oilers at Vancouver Canucks, NHL forecast

FinalESPN+

Away

Oilers

7-7-1

7–3

at

Home

Canucks

7-3-3

EDM 53%VAN 47%

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Rogers Arena · ESPN+

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors VAN; hover for each play.

VAN favored EDM favored10 scoring plays
P1P2P3VAN50%EDM

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Canucks

Scoring summary

  • P319:06Pius Suter Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Elias Pettersson (4), Quinn Hughes (12)7–3
  • P311:05Connor Brown Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Mattias Janmark (5)7–2
  • P38:08Brett Kulak Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (9), Ty Emberson (1)6–2
  • P37:16Connor McDavid Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Zach Hyman (4), Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (5)5–2
  • P36:10Connor Brown Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Adam Henrique (1), Mattias Janmark (4)4–2
  • P27:00Filip Hronek Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Teddy Blueger (5), Danton Heinen (4)3–2
  • P25:01Elias Pettersson Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Jake DeBrusk (5)3–1
  • P24:43Viktor Arvidsson Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Leon Draisaitl (8), Brett Kulak (2)3–0
  • P23:30Corey Perry Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Mattias Janmark (3), Derek Ryan (1)2–0
  • P12:48Leon Draisaitl Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Zach Hyman (3), Connor McDavid (8)1–0

Turning points

The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.

  1. P12:48Leon Draisaitl Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Zach Hyman (3), Connor McDavid (8)EDM 1 – 0 VAN · EDM 53% → 67% +14
  2. P23:30Corey Perry Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Mattias Janmark (3), Derek Ryan (1)EDM 2 – 0 VAN · EDM 70% → 84% +14
  3. P24:43Viktor Arvidsson Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Leon Draisaitl (8), Brett Kulak (2)EDM 3 – 0 VAN · EDM 84% → 93% +9
  4. P27:00Filip Hronek Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Teddy Blueger (5), Danton Heinen (4)EDM 3 – 2 VAN · VAN 15% → 29% +14
  5. P36:10Connor Brown Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Adam Henrique (1), Mattias Janmark (4)EDM 4 – 2 VAN · EDM 79% → 94% +15

The pick

Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

Oilers 53%

Toss-upHit
EDM 53%VAN 47%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.

Market
EDM 53%
ML EDM -125 / VAN +105
Pre-line forecast
EDM 44%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
EDM 44%
Ratings vs. market
−9.5 pts
EDM: Elo 43.7%, market 53.2%
Fair odds
EDM -114
VAN +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
EDM 3.3 – 3.2 VAN
Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorEDMVANWhy
Team rating15311531Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+35Worth 35 Elo in the NHL
Starting goalies−3+6EDM: Stuart Skinner: team allows 0.07 more goals than with its usual starter (≈42 weighted starts) · VAN: Kevin Lankinen: team allows 0.16 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈20 weighted starts)
Elo ratingsVAN +44 EloVAN 56.3%
Market-implied ratingsVAN 56.4%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastVAN 56.4%20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend)
ForecastEDM 53.2%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.

Try another venue →
Edmonton Oilers and Vancouver Canucks compared, with each team's league rank
EDMStatVAN
31st of 322.4Goals scored3.314th of 32
21st of 323.2Goals allowed3.010th of 32
25th of 32−0.9Margin+0.315th of 32
2nd of 3255.6%Shot share51.4%14th of 32
27th of 3288.6%Save percentage89.4%21st of 32
12th of 325–5Last 107–35th of 32
7th of 324–2Road vs home1–431st of 32

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

OilersCanucks
135014001450150015501600league averageNovFebMayAugNov

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonEDMVAN
Puck line4–105–7
Last 104–65–5
Favorite3–94–6
Underdog1–11–1
Overs–unders3–115–7
Overs–unders, last 101–94–6

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

EDM 4–7 VAN in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 11.