Vancouver Canucks at San Jose Sharks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Canucks- Pius SuterGoals2
- Conor GarlandAssists2
- Pius SuterPoints2
Sharks- Tyler ToffoliAssists1
- Tyler ToffoliPoints1
Scoring summary
- P319:34Pius Suter Goal (4) Slap Shot, assists: Conor Garland (6), Carson Soucy (1)3–2
- P318:43Mikael Granlund Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Tyler Toffoli (5), William Eklund (7)2–2
- P315:38Jake DeBrusk Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Quinn Hughes (7), Filip Hronek (3)2–1
- P214:41Pius Suter Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Nils Hoglander (3), Conor Garland (5)1–1
- P22:37Nico Sturm Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Luke Kunin (3)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P22:37Nico Sturm Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Luke Kunin (3)VAN 0 – 1 SJ · SJ 33% → 50% +18SJ 33% → 50%+18 pts
- P214:41Pius Suter Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Nils Hoglander (3), Conor Garland (5)VAN 1 – 1 SJ · VAN 42% → 65% +22VAN 42% → 65%+22 pts
- P315:38Jake DeBrusk Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Quinn Hughes (7), Filip Hronek (3)VAN 2 – 1 SJ · VAN 56% → 93% +37VAN 56% → 93%+37 pts
- P318:43Mikael Granlund Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Tyler Toffoli (5), William Eklund (7)VAN 2 – 2 SJ · SJ <1% → 47% +46SJ <1% → 47%+46 pts
- P319:34Pius Suter Goal (4) Slap Shot, assists: Conor Garland (6), Carson Soucy (1)VAN 3 – 2 SJ · VAN 52% → >99% +48VAN 52% → >99%+48 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Canucks 72%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 76.2% of 172 graded games.
- Market
- VAN 72%
- ML VAN -290 / SJ +240
- Pre-line forecast
- VAN 67%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- VAN 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.5 pts
- VAN: Elo 63.2%, market 71.7%
- Fair odds
- VAN -253
- SJ +253 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- VAN 3.9 – 2.6 SJ
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | VAN | SJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1521 | 1398 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +2 | −4 | VAN: Kevin Lankinen: team allows 0.05 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈19 weighted starts) · SJ: Mackenzie Blackwood: team allows 0.11 more goals than with its usual starter (≈30 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | VAN +94 Elo | VAN 63.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | VAN 68.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | VAN 67.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | VAN 71.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| VAN | Stat | SJ |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 323.0 | Goals scored | 2.529th of 32 |
| 22nd of 323.4 | Goals allowed | 3.930th of 32 |
| 18th of 32−0.4 | Margin | −1.431st of 32 |
| 14th of 3250.3% | Shot share | 46.3%29th of 32 |
| 25th of 3288.4% | Save percentage | 88.7%23rd of 32 |
| 4th of 323–1 | Road vs home | 2–323rd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  VAN |  SJ |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 3–6 | 6–6 |
| Last 10 | 3–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 2–5 | — |
| Underdog | 1–1 | 6–6 |
| Overs–unders | 4–5 | 4–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–5 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
VAN 3–1 SJ in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.