Vancouver Canucks at San Jose Sharks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Canucks- Brock BoeserGoals2
- Quinn HughesAssists4
- Quinn HughesPoints5
Sharks- Fabian ZetterlundGoals1
- Luke KuninAssists1
- Fabian ZetterlundPoints1
Scoring summary
- P316:12Fabian Zetterlund Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Luke Kunin (1), Kevin Labanc (1)10–1
- P311:58Anthony Beauvillier Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Conor Garland (2)10–0
- P33:10Anthony Beauvillier Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Carson Soucy (2), Filip Hronek (10)9–0
- P217:26Pius Suter Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Quinn Hughes (12)8–0
- P212:35Sam Lafferty Goal (3) Wrap-around, assists: J.T. Miller (10), Quinn Hughes (11)7–0
- P28:47Andrei Kuzmenko Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Elias Pettersson (14), Mark Friedman (1)6–0
- P21:03Ilya Mikheyev Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Carson Soucy (1), Elias Pettersson (13)5–0
- P116:49Brock Boeser Goal (8) Tip-In, assists: Andrei Kuzmenko (6), J.T. Miller (9)4–0
- P18:00Quinn Hughes Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Filip Hronek (9), Sam Lafferty (2)3–0
- P14:00J.T. Miller Goal (6) Backhand, assists: Brock Boeser (5), Quinn Hughes (10)2–0
- P12:23Brock Boeser Goal (7) Slap Shot, assists: Elias Pettersson (12), Quinn Hughes (9)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P12:23Brock Boeser Goal (7) Slap Shot, assists: Elias Pettersson (12), Quinn Hughes (9)VAN 1 – 0 SJ · VAN 47% → 62% +15VAN 47% → 62%+15 pts
- P14:00J.T. Miller Goal (6) Backhand, assists: Brock Boeser (5), Quinn Hughes (10)VAN 2 – 0 SJ · VAN 62% → 75% +13VAN 62% → 75%+13 pts
- P18:00Quinn Hughes Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Filip Hronek (9), Sam Lafferty (2)VAN 3 – 0 SJ · VAN 76% → 86% +10VAN 76% → 86%+10 pts
- P116:49Brock Boeser Goal (8) Tip-In, assists: Andrei Kuzmenko (6), J.T. Miller (9)VAN 4 – 0 SJ · VAN 89% → 95% +6VAN 89% → 95%+6 pts
- P21:03Ilya Mikheyev Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Carson Soucy (1), Elias Pettersson (13)VAN 5 – 0 SJ · VAN 96% → 99% +3VAN 96% → 99%+3 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Sharks 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SJ 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SJ 46%
- Fair odds
- SJ -113
- VAN +113 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- VAN 3.0 – 3.2 SJ
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | VAN | SJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1515 | 1464 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +18 | +2 | VAN: Thatcher Demko: team allows 0.45 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · SJ: Kaapo Kahkonen: team allows 0.05 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | VAN +31 Elo | VAN 54.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SJ 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SJ 53.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| VAN | Stat | SJ |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 314.0 | Goals scored | 1.031st of 31 |
| 4th of 312.3 | Goals allowed | 3.929th of 31 |
| 2nd of 31+1.7 | Margin | −2.931st of 31 |
| 21st of 3148.3% | Shot share | 39.0%31st of 31 |
| 7th of 3192.3% | Save percentage | 90.7%19th of 31 |
| 10th of 313–2 | Road vs home | 0–428th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.