Vancouver Canucks at Nashville Predators, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Canucks- Phillip Di GiuseppeGoals1
- Filip HronekAssists1
- Phillip Di GiuseppePoints1
Predators- Colton SissonsGoals1
- Tommy NovakAssists1
- Colton SissonsPoints1
Scoring summary
- P29:18Kiefer Sherwood Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Tommy Novak (1)3–2
- P23:11Nils Hoglander Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Quinn Hughes (5), Filip Hronek (4)3–1
- P20:22Phillip Di Giuseppe Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Brock Boeser (2)2–1
- P115:38Colton Sissons Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: none1–1
- P14:29Ilya Mikheyev Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Andrei Kuzmenko (3), Ian Cole (1)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P14:29Ilya Mikheyev Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Andrei Kuzmenko (3), Ian Cole (1)VAN 1 – 0 NSH · VAN 45% → 60% +15VAN 45% → 60%+15 pts
- P115:38Colton Sissons Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: noneVAN 1 – 1 NSH · NSH 38% → 54% +17NSH 38% → 54%+17 pts
- P20:22Phillip Di Giuseppe Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Brock Boeser (2)VAN 2 – 1 NSH · VAN 46% → 64% +18VAN 46% → 64%+18 pts
- P23:11Nils Hoglander Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Quinn Hughes (5), Filip Hronek (4)VAN 3 – 1 NSH · VAN 64% → 80% +15VAN 64% → 80%+15 pts
- P29:18Kiefer Sherwood Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Tommy Novak (1)VAN 3 – 2 NSH · NSH 18% → 34% +16NSH 18% → 34%+16 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Predators 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NSH 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NSH 54%
- Fair odds
- NSH -122
- VAN +122 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- VAN 3.0 – 3.3 NSH
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | VAN | NSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1506 | 1501 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +6 | +8 | VAN: Thatcher Demko: team allows 0.16 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · NSH: Juuse Saros: team allows 0.20 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NSH +31 Elo | NSH 54.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NSH 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NSH 54.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| VAN | Stat | NSH |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 314.0 | Goals scored | 3.017th of 31 |
| 6th of 312.6 | Goals allowed | 2.78th of 31 |
| 5th of 31+1.4 | Margin | +0.313th of 31 |
| 28th of 3142.5% | Shot share | 54.8%6th of 31 |
| 6th of 3192.8% | Save percentage | 91.3%11th of 31 |
| 11th of 312–2 | Road vs home | 2–112th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.