Edmonton Oilers at Nashville Predators, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Oilers- Leon DraisaitlGoals2
- Zach HymanAssists3
- Leon DraisaitlPoints4
Predators- Tommy NovakGoals1
- Ryan O'ReillyAssists1
- Tommy NovakPoints1
Scoring summary
- P215:27Warren Foegele Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (4), Zach Hyman (4)6–1
- P27:53Leon Draisaitl Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Evan Bouchard (4), Connor McDavid (3)5–1
- P22:08Tommy Novak Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan O'Reilly (2)4–1
- P117:46Connor McDavid Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Leon Draisaitl (3), Evander Kane (1)4–0
- P116:45Ryan Nugent-Hopkins Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Warren Foegele (1), Zach Hyman (3)3–0
- P113:38Zach Hyman Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Evan Bouchard (3), Leon Draisaitl (2)2–0
- P18:11Leon Draisaitl Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Zach Hyman (2), Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (3)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P18:11Leon Draisaitl Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Zach Hyman (2), Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (3)EDM 1 – 0 NSH · EDM 44% → 60% +16EDM 44% → 60%+16 pts
- P113:38Zach Hyman Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Evan Bouchard (3), Leon Draisaitl (2)EDM 2 – 0 NSH · EDM 61% → 76% +15EDM 61% → 76%+15 pts
- P116:45Ryan Nugent-Hopkins Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Warren Foegele (1), Zach Hyman (3)EDM 3 – 0 NSH · EDM 77% → 88% +11EDM 77% → 88%+11 pts
- P117:46Connor McDavid Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Leon Draisaitl (3), Evander Kane (1)EDM 4 – 0 NSH · EDM 88% → 95% +7EDM 88% → 95%+7 pts
- P22:08Tommy Novak Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan O'Reilly (2)EDM 4 – 1 NSH · NSH 4% → 10% +6NSH 4% → 10%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Predators 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NSH 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NSH 61%
- Fair odds
- NSH -128
- EDM +128 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- EDM 2.9 – 3.3 NSH
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | EDM | NSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1492 | 1499 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −28 | +5 | EDM: Jack Campbell: team allows 0.71 more goals than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · NSH: Juuse Saros: team allows 0.13 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NSH +75 Elo | NSH 60.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NSH 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NSH 56.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| EDM | Stat | NSH |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 312.0 | Goals scored | 2.721st of 31 |
| 31st of 316.0 | Goals allowed | 2.711th of 31 |
| 31st of 31−4.0 | Margin | 0.015th of 31 |
| 5th of 3158.3% | Shot share | 54.0%10th of 31 |
| 31st of 3175.0% | Save percentage | 91.9%14th of 31 |
| 12th of 220–1 | Road vs home | 1–01st of 26 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Oilers: last 2