Vancouver Canucks at Edmonton Oilers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors EDM; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Canucks- Nils HoglanderGoals1
- Elias PetterssonAssists2
- Nils HoglanderPoints2
Oilers- Ryan Nugent-HopkinsGoals1
- Ryan Nugent-HopkinsAssists2
- Ryan Nugent-HopkinsPoints3
Scoring summary
- P32:56Sam Lafferty Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Nils Hoglander (2)4–3
- P29:29Ryan Nugent-Hopkins Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Evan Bouchard (2), Connor McDavid (2)3–3
- P22:36Jack Studnicka Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Elias Pettersson (5)3–2
- P21:45Connor McDavid Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (2), Leon Draisaitl (1)2–2
- P117:51Nils Hoglander Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Brock Boeser (1), Tyler Myers (1)2–1
- P19:25Andrei Kuzmenko Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Quinn Hughes (4), Elias Pettersson (4)1–1
- P10:42Leon Draisaitl Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (1), Zach Hyman (1)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P117:51Nils Hoglander Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Brock Boeser (1), Tyler Myers (1)VAN 2 – 1 EDM · VAN 46% → 63% +17VAN 46% → 63%+17 pts
- P21:45Connor McDavid Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (2), Leon Draisaitl (1)VAN 2 – 2 EDM · EDM 36% → 54% +18EDM 36% → 54%+18 pts
- P22:36Jack Studnicka Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Elias Pettersson (5)VAN 3 – 2 EDM · VAN 46% → 64% +18VAN 46% → 64%+18 pts
- P29:29Ryan Nugent-Hopkins Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Evan Bouchard (2), Connor McDavid (2)VAN 3 – 3 EDM · EDM 33% → 53% +20EDM 33% → 53%+20 pts
- P32:56Sam Lafferty Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Nils Hoglander (2)VAN 4 – 3 EDM · VAN 47% → 73% +26VAN 47% → 73%+26 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Oilers 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- EDM 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- EDM 53%
- Fair odds
- EDM -121
- VAN +121 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- VAN 3.0 – 3.2 EDM
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | VAN | EDM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1506 | 1494 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | — | — | VAN: Casey DeSmith (no track record yet) · EDM: Stuart Skinner (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | EDM +24 Elo | EDM 53.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | EDM 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | EDM 54.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| VAN | Stat | EDM |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 308.0 | Goals scored | 1.027th of 30 |
| 1st of 301.0 | Goals allowed | 8.030th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+7.0 | Margin | −7.030th of 30 |
| 8th of 3054.2% | Shot share | 45.8%21st of 30 |
| 3rd of 3096.3% | Save percentage | 75.0%30th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Canucks: last 1
Oilers: last 1
Head to head
VAN 1–0 EDM in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.