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Edmonton Oilers at Vancouver Canucks, NHL forecast

FinalNHLPP|ESPN+

Away

Oilers

0-1-0

1–8

at

Home

Canucks

1-0-0

EDM 45%VAN 55%

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Rogers Arena · NHLPP|ESPN+

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors VAN; hover for each play.

VAN favored EDM favored9 scoring plays
P1P2P3VAN50%EDM

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Canucks

Scoring summary

  • P314:48Dakota Joshua Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Sam Lafferty (1), Nils Hoglander (1)1–8
  • P36:56J.T. Miller Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Quinn Hughes (3), Elias Pettersson (3)1–7
  • P35:43Brock Boeser Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Quinn Hughes (2), Filip Hronek (2)1–6
  • P211:08Elias Pettersson Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Quinn Hughes (1), J.T. Miller (3)1–5
  • P28:20Leon Draisaitl Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (1), Evan Bouchard (1)1–4
  • P27:30Brock Boeser Goal (3) Deflected, assists: Elias Pettersson (2), Andrei Kuzmenko (1)0–4
  • P24:03Brock Boeser Goal (2) Batted, assists: J.T. Miller (2), Filip Hronek (1)0–3
  • P111:27Brock Boeser Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: J.T. Miller (1), Phillip Di Giuseppe (1)0–2
  • P18:06Conor Garland Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Elias Pettersson (1), Noah Juulsen (1)0–1

Turning points

The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.

  1. P18:06Conor Garland Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Elias Pettersson (1), Noah Juulsen (1)EDM 0 – 1 VAN · VAN 55% → 69% +15
  2. P111:27Brock Boeser Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: J.T. Miller (1), Phillip Di Giuseppe (1)EDM 0 – 2 VAN · VAN 70% → 82% +12
  3. P24:03Brock Boeser Goal (2) Batted, assists: J.T. Miller (2), Filip Hronek (1)EDM 0 – 3 VAN · VAN 85% → 93% +8
  4. P27:30Brock Boeser Goal (3) Deflected, assists: Elias Pettersson (2), Andrei Kuzmenko (1)EDM 0 – 4 VAN · VAN 94% → 98% +4
  5. P28:20Leon Draisaitl Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (1), Evan Bouchard (1)EDM 1 – 4 VAN · EDM 2% → 5% +4

The pick

Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.

Canucks 55%

LeanHit
EDM 45%VAN 55%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.

Market
No line yet
Pre-line forecast
VAN 55%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
VAN 55%
Fair odds
VAN -122
EDM +122 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
EDM 3.0 – 3.2 VAN
Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorEDMVANWhy
Team rating15001500Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+35Worth 35 Elo in the NHL
Starting goalies——EDM: Jack Campbell (no track record yet) · VAN: Thatcher Demko (no track record yet)
Elo ratingsVAN +35 EloVAN 55.0%
Market-implied ratingsVAN 55.0%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastVAN 55.0%20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend)

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

OilersCanucks
135014001450150015501600league averageNovFebMayAugNov

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

No earlier games in the window.