Nashville Predators at Tampa Bay Lightning, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TB; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Predators- Ryan O'ReillyGoals1
- Filip ForsbergAssists2
- Ryan O'ReillyPoints2
Lightning- Nick PaulGoals2
- Brayden PointAssists3
- Nick PaulPoints3
Scoring summary
- P319:58Nikita Kucherov Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Nicholas Paul (1)3–5
- P310:52Nicholas Paul Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Mikhail Sergachev (1), Brayden Point (3)3–4
- P38:48Tommy Novak Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Philip Tomasino (1), Gustav Nyquist (1)3–3
- P33:07Brandon Hagel Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: none2–3
- P32:25Nicholas Paul Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Brayden Point (2), Steven Stamkos (1)2–2
- P30:11Juuso Parssinen Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Filip Forsberg (2), Ryan O'Reilly (1)2–1
- P216:15Ryan O'Reilly Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Filip Forsberg (1), Ryan McDonagh (1)1–1
- P19:48Nikita Kucherov Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Victor Hedman (1), Brayden Point (1)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P30:11Juuso Parssinen Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Filip Forsberg (2), Ryan O'Reilly (1)NSH 2 – 1 TB · NSH 47% → 71% +24NSH 47% → 71%+24 pts
- P32:25Nicholas Paul Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Brayden Point (2), Steven Stamkos (1)NSH 2 – 2 TB · TB 27% → 53% +25TB 27% → 53%+25 pts
- P33:07Brandon Hagel Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: noneNSH 2 – 3 TB · TB 53% → 77% +25TB 53% → 77%+25 pts
- P38:48Tommy Novak Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Philip Tomasino (1), Gustav Nyquist (1)NSH 3 – 3 TB · NSH 18% → 48% +29NSH 18% → 48%+29 pts
- P310:52Nicholas Paul Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Mikhail Sergachev (1), Brayden Point (3)NSH 3 – 4 TB · TB 52% → 84% +32TB 52% → 84%+32 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Lightning 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 55%
- Fair odds
- TB -122
- NSH +122 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NSH 2.9 – 3.2 TB
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NSH | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1500 | 1500 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | — | — | NSH: Juuse Saros (no track record yet) · TB: Jonas Johansson (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | TB +35 Elo | TB 55.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 55.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
No earlier games in the window.