NHL · 2026-27
Tampa Bay Lightning
11-4-2 · #3 of 32 by Elo
Elo rating
1553
#3 of 32 · 1500 is average
Market rating
1544
#3 of 32 by recent lines
This season
+8
Elo change since opening night
Forecasts on their games
71%
12–5 this season
By the numbers
This season, regular season, each with its league rank. Scoring and margin are a game; opponent Elo is how strong the teams they've played are. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records.
- Goals scored
- 3.7
- 6th of 32
- Goals allowed
- 3.1
- 17th fewest of 32
- Margin
- +0.6
- 8th of 32
- Shot share
- 54.9%
- 3rd of 32
- Save percentage
- 88.2%
- 26th of 32
- Last 10
- 6–4
- 8th of 32
- At home
- 8–0
- 1st of 32
- On the road
- 3–6
- 22nd of 32
- Opponent Elo
- 1492
- 25th toughest of 32
Season outlook
From 10,000 simulations of the rest of the 2026-27 season and the playoffs, with standings ties broken by coin flip. Every team and how it works
Projected record
49-26-9
Now 11-4-2 · middle 80%: 43–55 wins
Make the playoffs
89%
Division: 39%
About 95 points usually gets them in
Reach the Stanley Cup Final
16%
Win it all
9%
In 865 of 10,000 simulations
Playoff chances this season
Their chance to make the playoffs from each day's simulation of the rest of the season, since Nov 3. Now 89%.
Upcoming
Forecasts for their next games. Their next 5 opponents average 1510 Elo, the 9th-toughest stretch of the league's 32.
Lightning
11-4-2
Sabres
8-6-3
Lightning
11-4-2
Blue Jackets
7-9-0
Red Wings
7-9-3
Lightning
11-4-2
Capitals
10-6-0
Lightning
11-4-2
Oilers
13-3-3
Lightning
11-4-2
Sabres
8-6-3
Lightning
11-4-2
Players
Who's been playing, busiest first. Each has projections, prop lines and recent games against the line.
- Nikita Kucherov
- Brandon Hagel
- Jake Guentzel
- John Carlson
- Brayden Point
- JJ Moser
- Erik Cernak
- Anthony Cirelli
- Charle-Edouard D'Astous
- Ryan McDonagh
- Andrei Vasilevskiy
- Ilya Mikheyev
- Pontus Holmberg
- Victor Hedman
- Gage Goncalves
- Conor Geekie
- Zemgus Girgensons
- Max Crozier
- Jeffrey Viel
- Dennis Hildeby
- Emil Lilleberg
- Dominic James
- Scott Sabourin
- Yanni Gourde
Rating history
Elo over the last two seasons. The dashed line is league average.
Against the line
This season, against each game's closing spread and total.
- Puck line
- 9–7
- Last 10
- 6–4
- As the favorite
- 7–6
- As the underdog
- 2–1
- Overs–unders
- 9–7
- Overs–unders, last 10
- 7–3
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Recent results
Last ten games and whether the forecast hit.
Last 10, oldest first: W W L L W L W W W L
- L
@ WPG 3–4Picked TB 59%Nov 8Miss - W
@ MIN 4–3Picked TB 54%Nov 7Hit - W
vs CHI 4–1Picked TB 77%Nov 5Hit - W
vs DET 4–2Picked TB 70%Nov 3Hit - L
@ NSH 4–5Picked TB 60%Oct 31Miss - Wvs WPG 6–4Picked TB 68%Oct 29Hit
- L
@ UTA 4–5Picked UTA 56%Oct 24Hit - L
@ COL 3–6Picked COL 53%Oct 23Hit - W
@ VGK 6–2Picked VGK 51%Oct 20Miss - W
vs VAN 4–2Picked TB 77%Oct 17Hit
Injury report
Current ESPN report, with what the model subtracts for their next game.
Brayden Point C
−3 EloInjured ReserveLed team in points 1/10 recent games
ir