Detroit Red Wings at Tampa Bay Lightning, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TB; hover for each play.
How the forecast moved
TB went from 73% to 70% over 5 updates; the betting line was first on file Monday, November 2 at 9:01 PM ET. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Wings- J.T. CompherGoals1
- J.T. CompherAssists1
- J.T. CompherPoints2
Lightning- Brayden PointGoals2
- Nikita KucherovAssists2
- Brayden PointPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:59Ryan McDonagh Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: none2–4
- P35:29J.T. Compher Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Andrew Copp (4), Justin Faulk (6)2–3
- P210:23Lucas Raymond Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: J.T. Compher (4)1–3
- P28:41Anthony Cirelli Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Gage Goncalves (3), J.J. Moser (1)0–3
- P113:01Brayden Point Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Nikita Kucherov (16), Erik Cernak (3)0–2
- P17:54Brayden Point Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Nikita Kucherov (15), Charle-Edouard D'Astous (6)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P17:54Brayden Point Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Nikita Kucherov (15), Charle-Edouard D'Astous (6)DET 0 – 1 TB · TB 68% → 81% +12TB 68% → 81%+12 pts
- P113:01Brayden Point Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Nikita Kucherov (16), Erik Cernak (3)DET 0 – 2 TB · TB 81% → 90% +9TB 81% → 90%+9 pts
- P28:41Anthony Cirelli Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Gage Goncalves (3), J.J. Moser (1)DET 0 – 3 TB · TB 92% → 97% +5TB 92% → 97%+5 pts
- P210:23Lucas Raymond Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: J.T. Compher (4)DET 1 – 3 TB · DET 3% → 8% +5DET 3% → 8%+5 pts
- P35:29J.T. Compher Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Andrew Copp (4), Justin Faulk (6)DET 2 – 3 TB · DET 4% → 16% +12DET 4% → 16%+12 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Lightning 70%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 67.6% of 306 graded games.
- Market
- TB 70%
- ML DET +215 / TB -265
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 72%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 68%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.8 pts
- TB: Elo 67.8%, market 69.6%
- Fair odds
- TB -229
- DET +229 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 2.7 – 3.8 TB
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1484 | 1549 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | DET on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | 0 | +1 | DET: John Gibson: team allows 0.01 more goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts) · TB: Andrei Vasilevskiy: team allows 0.04 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈49 weighted starts) |
| Injuries | — | −3 | Key absences: Zemgus Girgensons |
| Elo ratings | TB +129 Elo | TB 67.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 73.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 72.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 69.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| DET | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 323.1 | Goals scored | 3.76th of 32 |
| 12th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 3.318th of 32 |
| 18th of 320.0 | Margin | +0.411th of 32 |
| 6th of 3254.7% | Shot share | 54.8%5th of 32 |
| 25th of 3288.3% | Save percentage | 87.9%28th of 32 |
| 7th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 32 |
| 8th of 323–3 | Road vs home | 6–01st of 32 |
| 32nd of 321480 | Opponent Elo | 149422nd of 32 |
| 19th of 321484 | Elo rating | 15493rd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  TB |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 8–7 | 7–6 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Underdog | 5–0 | 2–1 |
| Overs–unders | 9–6 | 8–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 6–5 TB in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 11.