Tampa Bay Lightning at Colorado Avalanche, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors COL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Lightning- Jake GuentzelGoals2
- Brayden PointAssists2
- Jake GuentzelPoints2
Avalanche- Nathan MacKinnonGoals1
- Nathan MacKinnonAssists3
- Nathan MacKinnonPoints4
Scoring summary
- P317:19Martin Necas Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Gabriel Landeskog (3)3–6
- P315:13Charle-Edouard D'Astous Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Gage Goncalves (1), Max Crozier (3)3–5
- P34:18Nathan MacKinnon Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Artturi Lehkonen (4), Martin Necas (8)2–5
- P219:17Jake Guentzel Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Brayden Point (7), Brandon Hagel (6)2–4
- P213:57Artturi Lehkonen Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (13), Devon Toews (6)1–4
- P28:13Jake Guentzel Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Charle-Edouard D'Astous (3), Brayden Point (6)1–3
- P20:24Fedor Svechkov Goal (2) Batted, assists: Jaden Schwartz (4)0–3
- P15:52Nazem Kadri Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: T.J. Hughes (2), Nathan MacKinnon (12)0–2
- P11:08Devon Toews Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Martin Necas (7), Nathan MacKinnon (11)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P11:08Devon Toews Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Martin Necas (7), Nathan MacKinnon (11)TB 0 – 1 COL · COL 53% → 67% +14COL 53% → 67%+14 pts
- P15:52Nazem Kadri Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: T.J. Hughes (2), Nathan MacKinnon (12)TB 0 – 2 COL · COL 68% → 80% +12COL 68% → 80%+12 pts
- P20:24Fedor Svechkov Goal (2) Batted, assists: Jaden Schwartz (4)TB 0 – 3 COL · COL 83% → 92% +9COL 83% → 92%+9 pts
- P28:13Jake Guentzel Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Charle-Edouard D'Astous (3), Brayden Point (6)TB 1 – 3 COL · TB 6% → 14% +9TB 6% → 14%+9 pts
- P213:57Artturi Lehkonen Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (13), Devon Toews (6)TB 1 – 4 COL · COL 88% → 96% +8COL 88% → 96%+8 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Avalanche 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- COL 53%
- ML TB +105 / COL -125
- Pre-line forecast
- COL 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- COL 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.3 pts
- COL: Elo 54.5%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- COL -114
- TB +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 3.2 – 3.3 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1556 | 1565 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +6 | −6 | TB: Andrei Vasilevskiy: team allows 0.15 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈49 weighted starts) · COL: Mackenzie Blackwood: team allows 0.16 more goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | COL +31 Elo | COL 54.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | COL 54.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | COL 54.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | COL 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| TB | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 323.4 | Goals scored | 4.12nd of 32 |
| 6th of 322.6 | Goals allowed | 3.114th of 32 |
| 6th of 32+0.9 | Margin | +1.04th of 32 |
| 4th of 3255.3% | Shot share | 52.8%11th of 32 |
| 9th of 3290.3% | Save percentage | 89.7%11th of 32 |
| 10th of 322–2 | Road vs home | 3–215th of 32 |
| 26th of 321492 | Opponent Elo | 149522nd of 32 |
| 3rd of 321556 | Elo rating | 15652nd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TB |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 5–4 | 6–4 |
| Last 10 | 5–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 4–4 | 4–4 |
| Underdog | 1–0 | 2–0 |
| Overs–unders | 4–5 | 6–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TB 4–2 COL in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 6.