Tampa Bay Lightning at Colorado Avalanche, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors COL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Lightning- Anthony CirelliGoals1
- Victor HedmanAssists1
- Anthony CirelliPoints1
Avalanche- Cale MakarGoals1
- Nathan MacKinnonAssists2
- Cale MakarPoints2
Scoring summary
- P316:46Valeri Nichushkin Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (21)1–4
- P219:29Anthony Cirelli Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Victor Hedman (19), Nikita Kucherov (21)1–3
- P23:35Cale Makar Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Mikko Rantanen (15), Nathan MacKinnon (20)0–3
- P21:48Ryan Johansen Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Tomas Tatar (8), Cale Makar (26)0–2
- P17:12Ryan Johansen Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: none0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P17:12Ryan Johansen Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: noneTB 0 – 1 COL · COL 55% → 70% +15COL 55% → 70%+15 pts
- P21:48Ryan Johansen Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Tomas Tatar (8), Cale Makar (26)TB 0 – 2 COL · COL 71% → 85% +13COL 71% → 85%+13 pts
- P23:35Cale Makar Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Mikko Rantanen (15), Nathan MacKinnon (20)TB 0 – 3 COL · COL 85% → 93% +8COL 85% → 93%+8 pts
- P219:29Anthony Cirelli Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Victor Hedman (19), Nikita Kucherov (21)TB 1 – 3 COL · TB 3% → 9% +7TB 3% → 9%+7 pts
- P316:46Valeri Nichushkin Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (21)TB 1 – 4 COL · COL >99% → >99% +0COL >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Avalanche 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- COL 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- COL 57%
- Fair odds
- COL -124
- TB +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 3.0 – 3.3 COL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1502 | 1529 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +14 | −2 | TB: Andrei Vasilevskiy: team allows 0.35 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · COL: Alexandar Georgiev: team allows 0.06 more goals than with its usual starter (≈15 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | COL +46 Elo | COL 56.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | COL 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | COL 55.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| TB | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 313.7 | Goals scored | 3.83rd of 31 |
| 23rd of 313.5 | Goals allowed | 2.910th of 31 |
| 14th of 31+0.2 | Margin | +0.94th of 31 |
| 24th of 3148.3% | Shot share | 54.1%4th of 31 |
| 23rd of 3189.4% | Save percentage | 89.7%19th of 31 |
| 12th of 315–5 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 31 |
| 21st of 314–6 | Road vs home | 7–22nd of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.