Colorado Avalanche at Dallas Stars, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Avalanche- Valeri NichushkinGoals1
- Cale MakarAssists3
- Cale MakarPoints3
Stars- Tyler SeguinGoals2
- Mason MarchmentAssists2
- Tyler SeguinPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:30Ross Colton Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Cale Makar (20)6–3
- P314:43Andrew Cogliano Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Joel Kiviranta (3), Samuel Girard (3)5–3
- P314:32Mikko Rantanen Goal (11) Backhand, assists: Devon Toews (8), Valeri Nichushkin (7)4–3
- P34:19Valeri Nichushkin Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: none3–3
- P217:09Ryan Johansen Goal (6) Tip-In, assists: Cale Makar (19), Mikko Rantanen (12)2–3
- P213:27Miles Wood Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Ross Colton (2), Cale Makar (18)1–3
- P22:12Tyler Seguin Goal (5) Backhand, assists: Mason Marchment (5), Esa Lindell (5)0–3
- P114:21Joe Pavelski Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Jamie Benn (9), Jason Robertson (10)0–2
- P110:33Tyler Seguin Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Mason Marchment (4), Matt Duchene (8)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P110:33Tyler Seguin Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Mason Marchment (4), Matt Duchene (8)COL 0 – 1 DAL · DAL 55% → 70% +15DAL 55% → 70%+15 pts
- P114:21Joe Pavelski Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Jamie Benn (9), Jason Robertson (10)COL 0 – 2 DAL · DAL 71% → 83% +13DAL 71% → 83%+13 pts
- P217:09Ryan Johansen Goal (6) Tip-In, assists: Cale Makar (19), Mikko Rantanen (12)COL 2 – 3 DAL · COL 10% → 25% +15COL 10% → 25%+15 pts
- P34:19Valeri Nichushkin Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: noneCOL 3 – 3 DAL · COL 22% → 47% +26COL 22% → 47%+26 pts
- P314:32Mikko Rantanen Goal (11) Backhand, assists: Devon Toews (8), Valeri Nichushkin (7)COL 4 – 3 DAL · COL 48% → 88% +40COL 48% → 88%+40 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Stars 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL 58%
- Fair odds
- DAL -126
- COL +126 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 3.0 – 3.3 DAL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | DAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1517 | 1521 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −9 | +11 | COL: Alexandar Georgiev: team allows 0.21 more goals than with its usual starter (≈12 weighted starts) · DAL: Jake Oettinger: team allows 0.26 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DAL +58 Elo | DAL 58.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 55.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| COL | Stat | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 313.7 | Goals scored | 3.414th of 31 |
| 12th of 313.1 | Goals allowed | 2.65th of 31 |
| 7th of 31+0.7 | Margin | +0.95th of 31 |
| 2nd of 3155.2% | Shot share | 48.3%24th of 31 |
| 27th of 3189.1% | Save percentage | 92.5%3rd of 31 |
| 13th of 315–5 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 31 |
| 6th of 315–3 | Road vs home | 3–29th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.