Boston Bruins at Dallas Stars, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bruins- Brad MarchandGoals1
- Ian MitchellAssists1
- Brad MarchandPoints1
Stars- Wyatt JohnstonGoals1
- Miro HeiskanenAssists2
- Miro HeiskanenPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:32Joe Pavelski Goal (5) Tip-In, assists: Jason Robertson (7), Miro Heiskanen (6)3–2
- P39:51Brad Marchand Goal (6) Backhand, assists: James van Riemsdyk (4), David Pastrnak (8)3–1
- P35:09Wyatt Johnston Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: Esa Lindell (3), Miro Heiskanen (5)2–1
- P114:09Mason Lohrei Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Danton Heinen (1), Ian Mitchell (2)2–0
- P110:21John Beecher Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Hampus Lindholm (2)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P110:21John Beecher Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Hampus Lindholm (2)BOS 1 – 0 DAL · BOS 46% → 62% +16BOS 46% → 62%+16 pts
- P114:09Mason Lohrei Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Danton Heinen (1), Ian Mitchell (2)BOS 2 – 0 DAL · BOS 62% → 77% +14BOS 62% → 77%+14 pts
- P35:09Wyatt Johnston Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: Esa Lindell (3), Miro Heiskanen (5)BOS 2 – 1 DAL · DAL 8% → 25% +17DAL 8% → 25%+17 pts
- P39:51Brad Marchand Goal (6) Backhand, assists: James van Riemsdyk (4), David Pastrnak (8)BOS 3 – 1 DAL · BOS 80% → 96% +16BOS 80% → 96%+16 pts
- P319:32Joe Pavelski Goal (5) Tip-In, assists: Jason Robertson (7), Miro Heiskanen (6)BOS 3 – 2 DAL · DAL <1% → <1% +0DAL <1% → <1%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Stars 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL 53%
- Fair odds
- DAL -120
- BOS +120 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 3.0 – 3.3 DAL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | DAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1524 | 1510 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +17 | +13 | BOS: Jeremy Swayman: team allows 0.42 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · DAL: Jake Oettinger: team allows 0.33 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DAL +18 Elo | DAL 52.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 54.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| BOS | Stat | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 313.3 | Goals scored | 3.020th of 31 |
| 1st of 311.9 | Goals allowed | 2.66th of 31 |
| 3rd of 31+1.4 | Margin | +0.411th of 31 |
| 14th of 3150.7% | Shot share | 46.3%25th of 31 |
| 1st of 3193.8% | Save percentage | 92.9%5th of 31 |
| 2nd of 314–1 | Road vs home | 3–18th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.