Dallas Stars at Calgary Flames, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CGY; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Stars- Jamie BennGoals1
- Roope HintzAssists2
- Jamie BennPoints2
Flames- MacKenzie WeegarGoals1
- Nazem KadriAssists2
- MacKenzie WeegarPoints2
Scoring summary
- P32:20MacKenzie Weegar Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Nazem Kadri (3), Elias Lindholm (6)4–3
- P219:48Mason Marchment Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Matt Duchene (3), Tyler Seguin (3)4–2
- P210:07Evgenii Dadonov Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Nils Lundkvist (2), Jamie Benn (5)3–2
- P24:35Jason Robertson Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Roope Hintz (5), Joe Pavelski (4)2–2
- P21:57Andrew Mangiapane Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: MacKenzie Weegar (3), Elias Lindholm (5)1–2
- P119:06Jamie Benn Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Roope Hintz (4), Esa Lindell (1)1–1
- P15:28Connor Zary Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Chris Tanev (1), Nazem Kadri (2)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P21:57Andrew Mangiapane Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: MacKenzie Weegar (3), Elias Lindholm (5)DAL 1 – 2 CGY · CGY 53% → 70% +17CGY 53% → 70%+17 pts
- P24:35Jason Robertson Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Roope Hintz (5), Joe Pavelski (4)DAL 2 – 2 CGY · DAL 29% → 47% +18DAL 29% → 47%+18 pts
- P210:07Evgenii Dadonov Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Nils Lundkvist (2), Jamie Benn (5)DAL 3 – 2 CGY · DAL 48% → 68% +20DAL 48% → 68%+20 pts
- P219:48Mason Marchment Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Matt Duchene (3), Tyler Seguin (3)DAL 4 – 2 CGY · DAL 72% → 89% +17DAL 72% → 89%+17 pts
- P32:20MacKenzie Weegar Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Nazem Kadri (3), Elias Lindholm (6)DAL 4 – 3 CGY · CGY 10% → 27% +17CGY 10% → 27%+17 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Flames 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CGY 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CGY 48%
- Fair odds
- CGY -115
- DAL +115 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DAL 3.0 – 3.2 CGY
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DAL | CGY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1508 | 1478 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +14 | −9 | DAL: Jake Oettinger: team allows 0.36 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · CGY: Jacob Markstrom: team allows 0.21 more goals than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DAL +17 Elo | DAL 52.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CGY 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CGY 53.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| DAL | Stat | CGY |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 313.1 | Goals scored | 2.129th of 31 |
| 7th of 312.6 | Goals allowed | 3.828th of 31 |
| 9th of 31+0.6 | Margin | −1.730th of 31 |
| 20th of 3149.2% | Shot share | 51.7%11th of 31 |
| 4th of 3192.5% | Save percentage | 88.8%26th of 31 |
| 7th of 312–1 | Road vs home | 1–222nd of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.