Calgary Flames at Edmonton Oilers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors EDM; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Flames- Nazem KadriGoals1
- MacKenzie WeegarAssists2
- MacKenzie WeegarPoints2
Oilers- Evander KaneGoals1
- Evander KaneAssists2
- Evander KanePoints3
Scoring summary
- P319:13Evander Kane Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Derek Ryan (1)2–5
- P36:16Vincent Desharnais Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Evander Kane (4), Zach Hyman (6)2–4
- P211:28A.J. Greer Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: MacKenzie Weegar (2), Jacob Markstrom (1)2–3
- P116:06Evan Bouchard Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: Leon Draisaitl (9), Connor McDavid (7)1–3
- P114:55Nazem Kadri Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: MacKenzie Weegar (1), Jonathan Huberdeau (3)1–2
- P19:38Zach Hyman Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Leon Draisaitl (8)0–2
- P14:19Brett Kulak Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Evander Kane (3), Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (5)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P14:19Brett Kulak Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Evander Kane (3), Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (5)CGY 0 – 1 EDM · EDM 50% → 65% +15EDM 50% → 65%+15 pts
- P114:55Nazem Kadri Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: MacKenzie Weegar (1), Jonathan Huberdeau (3)CGY 1 – 2 EDM · CGY 20% → 34% +14CGY 20% → 34%+14 pts
- P116:06Evan Bouchard Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: Leon Draisaitl (9), Connor McDavid (7)CGY 1 – 3 EDM · EDM 67% → 80% +14EDM 67% → 80%+14 pts
- P211:28A.J. Greer Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: MacKenzie Weegar (2), Jacob Markstrom (1)CGY 2 – 3 EDM · CGY 14% → 30% +15CGY 14% → 30%+15 pts
- P36:16Vincent Desharnais Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Evander Kane (4), Zach Hyman (6)CGY 2 – 4 EDM · EDM 78% → 94% +16EDM 78% → 94%+16 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Oilers 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- EDM 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- EDM 51%
- Fair odds
- EDM -101
- CGY +101 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CGY 3.1 – 3.1 EDM
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CGY | EDM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1483 | 1484 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | — | Neutral site, no advantage |
| Starting goalies | −3 | +2 | CGY: Jacob Markstrom: team allows 0.08 more goals than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · EDM: Stuart Skinner: team allows 0.04 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | EDM +5 Elo | EDM 50.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | EDM 50.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | EDM 50.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CGY | Stat | EDM |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 312.1 | Goals scored | 2.425th of 31 |
| 25th of 313.6 | Goals allowed | 4.331st of 31 |
| 29th of 31−1.5 | Margin | −1.930th of 31 |
| 11th of 3152.7% | Shot share | 50.3%16th of 31 |
| 25th of 3189.0% | Save percentage | 86.4%30th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.