Edmonton Oilers at Minnesota Wild, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Oilers- Warren FoegeleGoals2
- Evan BouchardAssists2
- Evan BouchardPoints3
Wild- Ryan HartmanGoals3
- Jake MiddletonAssists3
- Ryan HartmanPoints5
Scoring summary
- P316:37Marcus Foligno Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Joel Eriksson Ek (4)4–7
- P315:50Ryan Hartman Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Jake Middleton (5), Kirill Kaprizov (7)4–6
- P312:55Evander Kane Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Evan Bouchard (6), Leon Draisaitl (7)4–5
- P310:28Joel Eriksson Ek Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Pat Maroon (4), Marcus Johansson (3)3–5
- P36:48Mats Zuccarello Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Kirill Kaprizov (6), Ryan Hartman (3)3–4
- P30:38Ryan Hartman Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Mats Zuccarello (7), Kirill Kaprizov (5)3–3
- P20:32Warren Foegele Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Darnell Nurse (1), Zach Hyman (5)3–2
- P119:01Ryan Hartman Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Jake Middleton (4), Calen Addison (3)2–2
- P118:27Warren Foegele Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Evan Bouchard (5), Mattias Ekholm (1)2–1
- P17:47Marco Rossi Goal (2) Deflected, assists: Ryan Hartman (2), Jake Middleton (3)1–1
- P10:54Evan Bouchard Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Evander Kane (2), Leon Draisaitl (6)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P118:27Warren Foegele Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Evan Bouchard (5), Mattias Ekholm (1)EDM 2 – 1 MIN · EDM 46% → 63% +17EDM 46% → 63%+17 pts
- P119:01Ryan Hartman Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Jake Middleton (4), Calen Addison (3)EDM 2 – 2 MIN · MIN 37% → 54% +17MIN 37% → 54%+17 pts
- P20:32Warren Foegele Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Darnell Nurse (1), Zach Hyman (5)EDM 3 – 2 MIN · EDM 46% → 64% +18EDM 46% → 64%+18 pts
- P30:38Ryan Hartman Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Mats Zuccarello (7), Kirill Kaprizov (5)EDM 3 – 3 MIN · MIN 28% → 53% +24MIN 28% → 53%+24 pts
- P36:48Mats Zuccarello Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Kirill Kaprizov (6), Ryan Hartman (3)EDM 3 – 4 MIN · MIN 52% → 80% +28MIN 52% → 80%+28 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Wild 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 55%
- Fair odds
- MIN -122
- EDM +122 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- EDM 3.0 – 3.3 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | EDM | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1492 | 1495 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −13 | −15 | EDM: Jack Campbell: team allows 0.32 more goals than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · MIN: Filip Gustavsson: team allows 0.36 more goals than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +36 Elo | MIN 55.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 55.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| EDM | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 312.6 | Goals scored | 3.610th of 31 |
| 28th of 314.0 | Goals allowed | 4.229th of 31 |
| 29th of 31−1.4 | Margin | −0.623rd of 31 |
| 17th of 3151.4% | Shot share | 44.7%25th of 31 |
| 30th of 3186.8% | Save percentage | 89.5%23rd of 31 |
| 18th of 311–2 | Road vs home | 1–221st of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.