Los Angeles Kings at Minnesota Wild, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kings- Pierre-Luc DuboisGoals2
- Kevin FialaAssists2
- Pierre-Luc DuboisPoints2
Wild- Joel Eriksson EkGoals1
- Jonas BrodinAssists1
- Joel Eriksson EkPoints1
Scoring summary
- P318:52Blake Lizotte Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Mikey Anderson (3)7–3
- P317:41Adrian Kempe Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Matt Roy (1)6–3
- P314:38Joel Eriksson Ek Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Marcus Johansson (1), Pat Maroon (1)5–3
- P310:13Trevor Moore Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Arthur Kaliyev (2), Andreas Englund (1)5–2
- P119:14Pierre-Luc Dubois Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Kevin Fiala (6)4–2
- P119:02Pierre-Luc Dubois Goal (2) Deflected, assists: Kevin Fiala (5)3–2
- P115:46Vladislav Gavrikov Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Adrian Kempe (2), Anze Kopitar (3)2–2
- P18:00Kirill Kaprizov Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Jonas Brodin (2), Mats Zuccarello (6)1–2
- P16:21Connor Dewar Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Jon Merrill (1), Dakota Mermis (1)1–1
- P12:39Carl Grundstrom Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Drew Doughty (1)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P12:39Carl Grundstrom Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Drew Doughty (1)LA 1 – 0 MIN · LA 45% → 60% +15LA 45% → 60%+15 pts
- P16:21Connor Dewar Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Jon Merrill (1), Dakota Mermis (1)LA 1 – 1 MIN · MIN 40% → 55% +15MIN 40% → 55%+15 pts
- P115:46Vladislav Gavrikov Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Adrian Kempe (2), Anze Kopitar (3)LA 2 – 2 MIN · LA 30% → 45% +16LA 30% → 45%+16 pts
- P119:02Pierre-Luc Dubois Goal (2) Deflected, assists: Kevin Fiala (5)LA 3 – 2 MIN · LA 46% → 63% +17LA 46% → 63%+17 pts
- P119:14Pierre-Luc Dubois Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Kevin Fiala (6)LA 4 – 2 MIN · LA 63% → 78% +15LA 63% → 78%+15 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Wild 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 56%
- Fair odds
- MIN -124
- LA +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LA 2.9 – 3.2 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LA | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1498 | 1504 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +2 | +4 | LA: Cam Talbot: team allows 0.04 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) · MIN: Marc-Andre Fleury: team allows 0.11 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +44 Elo | MIN 56.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 55.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| LA | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 314.0 | Goals scored | 3.78th of 31 |
| 23rd of 314.0 | Goals allowed | 3.012th of 31 |
| 13th of 310.0 | Margin | +0.710th of 31 |
| 13th of 3153.4% | Shot share | 46.3%22nd of 31 |
| 26th of 3187.8% | Save percentage | 91.2%15th of 31 |
| 1st of 261–0 | Road vs home | 1–01st of 29 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.