Colorado Avalanche at Los Angeles Kings, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Avalanche- Mikko RantanenGoals2
- Mikko RantanenAssists2
- Mikko RantanenPoints4
Kings- Quinton ByfieldGoals1
- Anze KopitarAssists1
- Carl GrundstromPoints1
Scoring summary
- P316:08Miles Wood Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Ross Colton (1), Tomas Tatar (1)5–2
- P34:59Mikko Rantanen Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Jack Johnson (1), Cale Makar (1)4–2
- P219:55Quinton Byfield Goal (1) Deflected, assists: Anze Kopitar (1)3–2
- P26:18Carl Grundstrom Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Phillip Danault (1)3–1
- P23:47Mikko Rantanen Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Devon Toews (1), Nathan MacKinnon (2)3–0
- P22:54Cale Makar Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (1), Mikko Rantanen (2)2–0
- P17:25Nathan MacKinnon Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Mikko Rantanen (1), Jonathan Drouin (1)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P17:25Nathan MacKinnon Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Mikko Rantanen (1), Jonathan Drouin (1)COL 1 – 0 LA · COL 45% → 61% +15COL 45% → 61%+15 pts
- P22:54Cale Makar Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (1), Mikko Rantanen (2)COL 2 – 0 LA · COL 64% → 80% +15COL 64% → 80%+15 pts
- P23:47Mikko Rantanen Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Devon Toews (1), Nathan MacKinnon (2)COL 3 – 0 LA · COL 80% → 91% +11COL 80% → 91%+11 pts
- P219:55Quinton Byfield Goal (1) Deflected, assists: Anze Kopitar (1)COL 3 – 2 LA · LA 12% → 29% +17LA 12% → 29%+17 pts
- P34:59Mikko Rantanen Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Jack Johnson (1), Cale Makar (1)COL 4 – 2 LA · COL 75% → 92% +17COL 75% → 92%+17 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Kings 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LA 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LA 55%
- Fair odds
- LA -122
- COL +122 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 3.0 – 3.2 LA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | LA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1500 | 1500 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | — | — | COL: Alexandar Georgiev (no track record yet) · LA: Cam Talbot (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | LA +35 Elo | LA 55.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LA 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LA 55.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
No earlier games in the window.