Carolina Hurricanes at Los Angeles Kings, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hurricanes- Sebastian AhoGoals1
- Sebastian AhoAssists1
- Sebastian AhoPoints2
Kings- Anze KopitarGoals2
- Kevin FialaAssists3
- Kevin FialaPoints3
Scoring summary
- SO0:00Jordan Martinook Goal Backhand3–2
- SO0:00Martin Necas Goal Wrist Shot3–2
- SO0:00Trevor Moore Goal Wrist Shot3–2
- SO0:00Sebastian Aho Goal Wrist Shot3–2
- SO0:00Pierre-Luc Dubois Goal Wrist Shot3–2
- P318:38Anze Kopitar Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Carl Grundstrom (1), Kevin Fiala (3)5–5
- P311:24Vladislav Gavrikov Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Trevor Lewis (1), Blake Lizotte (1)5–4
- P213:46Trevor Moore Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: none5–3
- P210:23Teuvo Teravainen Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Sebastian Aho (2), Brady Skjei (2)5–2
- P25:20Anze Kopitar Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Adrian Kempe (1), Kevin Fiala (2)4–2
- P23:03Brendan Lemieux Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Tony DeAngelo (2)4–1
- P118:27Drew Doughty Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Kevin Fiala (1), Mikey Anderson (1)3–1
- P113:28Jesperi Kotkaniemi Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: none3–0
- P16:41Sebastian Aho Goal (1) Backhand, assists: none2–0
- P14:15Brent Burns Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Jaccob Slavin (1)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P14:15Brent Burns Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Jaccob Slavin (1)CAR 1 – 0 LA · CAR 45% → 60% +15CAR 45% → 60%+15 pts
- P16:41Sebastian Aho Goal (1) Backhand, assists: noneCAR 2 – 0 LA · CAR 61% → 75% +14CAR 61% → 75%+14 pts
- P113:28Jesperi Kotkaniemi Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: noneCAR 3 – 0 LA · CAR 77% → 87% +11CAR 77% → 87%+11 pts
- P311:24Vladislav Gavrikov Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Trevor Lewis (1), Blake Lizotte (1)CAR 5 – 4 LA · LA 3% → 18% +15LA 3% → 18%+15 pts
- P318:38Anze Kopitar Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Carl Grundstrom (1), Kevin Fiala (3)CAR 5 – 5 LA · LA <1% → 51% +50LA <1% → 51%+50 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Kings 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LA 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LA 54%
- Fair odds
- LA -121
- CAR +121 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CAR 3.0 – 3.2 LA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CAR | LA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1503 | 1495 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | 0 | — | CAR: Frederik Andersen: team allows 0.00 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · LA: Pheonix Copley (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | LA +26 Elo | LA 53.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LA 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LA 54.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CAR | Stat | LA |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 315.0 | Goals scored | 2.022nd of 31 |
| 11th of 313.0 | Goals allowed | 5.030th of 31 |
| 3rd of 31+2.0 | Margin | −3.028th of 31 |
| 5th of 3158.3% | Shot share | 49.3%16th of 31 |
| 18th of 3190.0% | Save percentage | 88.9%21st of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Hurricanes: last 1