Ottawa Senators at Carolina Hurricanes, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CAR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Senators- Mathieu JosephGoals1
- Mathieu JosephAssists1
- Mathieu JosephPoints2
Hurricanes- Brady SkjeiGoals1
- Brady SkjeiAssists1
- Jordan StaalPoints2
Scoring summary
- P311:05Jaccob Slavin Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Jesperi Kotkaniemi (1), Seth Jarvis (1)3–5
- P37:51Brady Skjei Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Jesper Fast (1), Jordan Staal (1)3–4
- P35:49Tim Stützle Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: none3–3
- P35:14Parker Kelly Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Mathieu Joseph (1)2–3
- P30:20Jordan Staal Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Jordan Martinook (1)1–3
- P217:57Teuvo Teravainen Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Martin Necas (1), Brady Skjei (1)1–2
- P22:55Michael Bunting Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Sebastian Aho (1), Tony DeAngelo (1)1–1
- P13:14Mathieu Joseph Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Artem Zub (1), Parker Kelly (1)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P22:55Michael Bunting Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Sebastian Aho (1), Tony DeAngelo (1)OTT 1 – 1 CAR · CAR 36% → 54% +18CAR 36% → 54%+18 pts
- P217:57Teuvo Teravainen Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Martin Necas (1), Brady Skjei (1)OTT 1 – 2 CAR · CAR 53% → 75% +22CAR 53% → 75%+22 pts
- P30:20Jordan Staal Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Jordan Martinook (1)OTT 1 – 3 CAR · CAR 76% → 91% +15CAR 76% → 91%+15 pts
- P35:49Tim Stützle Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: noneOTT 3 – 3 CAR · OTT 21% → 48% +27OTT 21% → 48%+27 pts
- P37:51Brady Skjei Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Jesper Fast (1), Jordan Staal (1)OTT 3 – 4 CAR · CAR 52% → 81% +28CAR 52% → 81%+28 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Hurricanes 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CAR 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CAR 55%
- Fair odds
- CAR -122
- OTT +122 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OTT 3.0 – 3.2 CAR
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OTT | CAR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1500 | 1500 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | — | — | OTT: Joonas Korpisalo (no track record yet) · CAR: Frederik Andersen (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | CAR +35 Elo | CAR 55.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CAR 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CAR 55.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
No earlier games in the window.