Florida Panthers at Minnesota Wild, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Panthers
Wild- Joel Eriksson EkGoals1
- Joel Eriksson EkAssists1
- Joel Eriksson EkPoints2
Scoring summary
- P212:56Joel Eriksson Ek Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Mats Zuccarello (1), Kirill Kaprizov (1)0–2
- P17:54Brock Faber Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Matt Boldy (1), Joel Eriksson Ek (1)0–1
Turning points
The 2 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P17:54Brock Faber Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Matt Boldy (1), Joel Eriksson Ek (1)FLA 0 – 1 MIN · MIN 55% → 69% +15MIN 55% → 69%+15 pts
- P212:56Joel Eriksson Ek Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Mats Zuccarello (1), Kirill Kaprizov (1)FLA 0 – 2 MIN · MIN 74% → 88% +14MIN 74% → 88%+14 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Wild 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 55%
- Fair odds
- MIN -122
- FLA +122 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- FLA 3.0 – 3.2 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | FLA | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1500 | 1500 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | — | — | FLA: Sergei Bobrovsky (no track record yet) · MIN: Filip Gustavsson (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +35 Elo | MIN 55.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 55.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
No earlier games in the window.