Minnesota Wild at Montreal Canadiens, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MTL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Wild- Joel Eriksson EkGoals2
- Mats ZuccarelloAssists3
- Kirill KaprizovPoints3
Canadiens- Tanner PearsonGoals1
- David SavardAssists1
- Tanner PearsonPoints1
Scoring summary
- P317:35Alex Newhook Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: David Savard (1), Cole Caufield (1)5–2
- P35:20Joel Eriksson Ek Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Kirill Kaprizov (4), Mats Zuccarello (5)5–1
- P217:22Kirill Kaprizov Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Mats Zuccarello (4), Calen Addison (2)4–1
- P29:47Tanner Pearson Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: none3–1
- P22:17Joel Eriksson Ek Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Mats Zuccarello (3), Kirill Kaprizov (3)3–0
- P19:45Connor Dewar Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: none2–0
- P19:20Brandon Duhaime Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Jake Middleton (2)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P19:20Brandon Duhaime Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Jake Middleton (2)MIN 1 – 0 MTL · MIN 45% → 61% +16MIN 45% → 61%+16 pts
- P19:45Connor Dewar Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: noneMIN 2 – 0 MTL · MIN 61% → 75% +14MIN 61% → 75%+14 pts
- P22:17Joel Eriksson Ek Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Mats Zuccarello (3), Kirill Kaprizov (3)MIN 3 – 0 MTL · MIN 79% → 90% +11MIN 79% → 90%+11 pts
- P29:47Tanner Pearson Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: noneMIN 3 – 1 MTL · MTL 7% → 18% +10MTL 7% → 18%+10 pts
- P217:22Kirill Kaprizov Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Mats Zuccarello (4), Calen Addison (2)MIN 4 – 1 MTL · MIN 87% → 96% +9MIN 87% → 96%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Canadiens 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MTL 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MTL 56%
- Fair odds
- MTL -124
- MIN +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 2.9 – 3.2 MTL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | MTL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1499 | 1500 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −2 | +6 | MIN: Marc-Andre Fleury (no track record yet) · MTL: Sam Montembeault: team allows 0.15 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MTL +44 Elo | MTL 56.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MTL 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MTL 55.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| MIN | Stat | MTL |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 313.0 | Goals scored | 4.06th of 31 |
| 18th of 313.5 | Goals allowed | 4.024th of 31 |
| 21st of 31−0.5 | Margin | 0.014th of 31 |
| 27th of 3141.7% | Shot share | 45.5%22nd of 31 |
| 17th of 3190.5% | Save percentage | 90.3%19th of 31 |
| 11th of 220–1 | Road vs home | 1–01st of 26 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Wild: last 2