Chicago Blackhawks at Montreal Canadiens, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MTL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blackhawks- Tyler JohnsonGoals2
- Seth JonesAssists1
- Tyler JohnsonPoints2
Canadiens- Tanner PearsonGoals1
- Kaiden GuhleAssists1
- Tanner PearsonPoints1
Scoring summary
- P318:39Tyler Johnson Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Corey Perry (3), Connor Bedard (2)2–3
- P30:35Tyler Johnson Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Seth Jones (2), Taylor Raddysh (1)1–3
- P217:38Sean Monahan Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Rafael Harvey-Pinard (2)0–3
- P27:56Tanner Pearson Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Kaiden Guhle (1), Sean Monahan (1)0–2
- P23:54Cole Caufield Goal (2) Batted, assists: Josh Anderson (1)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P23:54Cole Caufield Goal (2) Batted, assists: Josh Anderson (1)CHI 0 – 1 MTL · MTL 54% → 71% +18MTL 54% → 71%+18 pts
- P27:56Tanner Pearson Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Kaiden Guhle (1), Sean Monahan (1)CHI 0 – 2 MTL · MTL 72% → 86% +14MTL 72% → 86%+14 pts
- P217:38Sean Monahan Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Rafael Harvey-Pinard (2)CHI 0 – 3 MTL · MTL 90% → 97% +7MTL 90% → 97%+7 pts
- P30:35Tyler Johnson Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Seth Jones (2), Taylor Raddysh (1)CHI 1 – 3 MTL · CHI 2% → 9% +7CHI 2% → 9%+7 pts
- P318:39Tyler Johnson Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Corey Perry (3), Connor Bedard (2)CHI 2 – 3 MTL · CHI <1% → <1% +1CHI <1% → <1%+1 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Canadiens 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MTL 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MTL 54%
- Fair odds
- MTL -121
- CHI +121 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHI 3.0 – 3.2 MTL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHI | MTL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1501 | 1498 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +6 | — | CHI: Petr Mrazek: team allows 0.14 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · MTL: Sam Montembeault (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | MTL +26 Elo | MTL 53.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MTL 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MTL 54.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CHI | Stat | MTL |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 292.5 | Goals scored | 5.03rd of 29 |
| 10th of 292.5 | Goals allowed | 6.028th of 29 |
| 16th of 290.0 | Margin | −1.019th of 29 |
| 23rd of 2943.5% | Shot share | 36.4%27th of 29 |
| 8th of 2994.5% | Save percentage | 88.1%23rd of 29 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Blackhawks: last 2