Chicago Blackhawks at Pittsburgh Penguins, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PIT; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blackhawks- Nick FolignoGoals1
- Nick FolignoAssists1
- Nick FolignoPoints2
Penguins- Bryan RustGoals1
- Marcus PetterssonAssists1
- Sidney CrosbyPoints1
Scoring summary
- P318:33Nick Foligno Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Corey Perry (2), Jason Dickinson (1)4–2
- P315:29Jason Dickinson Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Corey Perry (1), Nick Foligno (1)3–2
- P310:05Cole Guttman Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Seth Jones (1), Andreas Athanasiou (1)2–2
- P215:37Ryan Donato Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Alex Vlasic (1), Connor Bedard (1)1–2
- P211:56Sidney Crosby Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Jake Guentzel (1), Marcus Pettersson (1)0–2
- P17:04Bryan Rust Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Kris Letang (1), Lars Eller (1)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P17:04Bryan Rust Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Kris Letang (1), Lars Eller (1)CHI 0 – 1 PIT · PIT 55% → 69% +15PIT 55% → 69%+15 pts
- P211:56Sidney Crosby Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Jake Guentzel (1), Marcus Pettersson (1)CHI 0 – 2 PIT · PIT 73% → 88% +14PIT 73% → 88%+14 pts
- P215:37Ryan Donato Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Alex Vlasic (1), Connor Bedard (1)CHI 1 – 2 PIT · CHI 11% → 26% +15CHI 11% → 26%+15 pts
- P310:05Cole Guttman Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Seth Jones (1), Andreas Athanasiou (1)CHI 2 – 2 PIT · CHI 17% → 48% +31CHI 17% → 48%+31 pts
- P315:29Jason Dickinson Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Corey Perry (1), Nick Foligno (1)CHI 3 – 2 PIT · CHI 49% → 90% +42CHI 49% → 90%+42 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Penguins 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 55%
- Fair odds
- PIT -122
- CHI +122 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHI 3.0 – 3.2 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHI | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1500 | 1500 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | — | — | CHI: Petr Mrazek (no track record yet) · PIT: Tristan Jarry (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | PIT +35 Elo | PIT 55.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 55.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
No earlier games in the window.