Montreal Canadiens at Toronto Maple Leafs, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TOR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Canadiens- Alex NewhookGoals2
- Kirby DachAssists2
- Alex NewhookPoints2
Maple Leafs- Auston MatthewsGoals3
- John TavaresAssists3
- Auston MatthewsPoints3
Scoring summary
- SO0:00Mitchell Marner Goal Wrist Shot0–1
- P318:53Auston Matthews Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: William Nylander (1)5–5
- P315:28Auston Matthews Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: John Tavares (3), Morgan Rielly (1)5–4
- P311:55Jesse Ylönen Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Rafael Harvey-Pinard (1)5–3
- P35:47Alex Newhook Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Arber Xhekaj (1), Kirby Dach (2)4–3
- P34:25Cole Caufield Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Mike Matheson (1), Nick Suzuki (1)3–3
- P219:15William Nylander Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: John Klingberg (2), John Tavares (2)2–3
- P214:51Auston Matthews Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Mitchell Marner (1), John Tavares (1)2–2
- P27:46Noah Gregor Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: John Klingberg (1)2–1
- P21:10Alex Newhook Goal (1) Deflected, assists: Juraj Slafkovsky (1), Kirby Dach (1)2–0
- P13:01Jake Evans Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: none1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P214:51Auston Matthews Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Mitchell Marner (1), John Tavares (1)MTL 2 – 2 TOR · TOR 31% → 53% +22TOR 31% → 53%+22 pts
- P219:15William Nylander Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: John Klingberg (2), John Tavares (2)MTL 2 – 3 TOR · TOR 53% → 76% +23TOR 53% → 76%+23 pts
- P34:25Cole Caufield Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Mike Matheson (1), Nick Suzuki (1)MTL 3 – 3 TOR · MTL 22% → 47% +26MTL 22% → 47%+26 pts
- P35:47Alex Newhook Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Arber Xhekaj (1), Kirby Dach (2)MTL 4 – 3 TOR · MTL 48% → 75% +28MTL 48% → 75%+28 pts
- P318:53Auston Matthews Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: William Nylander (1)MTL 5 – 5 TOR · TOR <1% → 51% +50TOR <1% → 51%+50 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Maple Leafs 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 55%
- Fair odds
- TOR -122
- MTL +122 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MTL 2.9 – 3.2 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MTL | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1500 | 1500 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | — | — | MTL: Jake Allen (no track record yet) · TOR: Ilya Samsonov (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +35 Elo | TOR 55.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 55.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
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