NHL · 2026-27

Toronto Maple Leafs

8-10-2 · #27 of 32 by Elo

Next gamevs

MIN· Thu, Nov 12 · 7:00 PM ETPlayoffs: 17% with a win, 12% with a loss41%to win

Matchup What if they win out?

Elo rating

1468

#27 of 32 · 1500 is average

Market rating

1493

#20 of 32 by recent lines

This season

−3

Elo change since opening night

Forecasts on their games

50%

10–10 this season

By the numbers

This season, regular season, each with its league rank. Scoring and margin are a game; opponent Elo is how strong the teams they've played are. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records.

Goals scored: 3.4; 13th of 32
Goals allowed: 3.5; 24th fewest of 32
Margin: −0.1; 20th of 32
Shot share: 48.7%; 20th of 32
Save percentage: 89.1%; 18th of 32
Last 10: 4–6; 21st of 32
At home: 4–8; 29th of 32
On the road: 4–4; 11th of 32
Opponent Elo: 1502; 12th toughest of 32

Season outlook

From 10,000 simulations of the rest of the 2026-27 season and the playoffs, with standings ties broken by coin flip. Every team and how it works

Projected record

38-37-9

Now 8-10-2 · middle 80%: 32–44 wins

Make the playoffs

14%

Division: 1%
About 96 points usually gets them in

Reach the Stanley Cup Final

Win it all

<1%

In 32 of 10,000 simulations

Playoff chances this season

Their chance to make the playoffs from each day's simulation of the rest of the season, since Nov 3. Now 14%.

Upcoming

Forecasts for their next games. Their next 5 opponents average 1489 Elo, the 8th-easiest stretch of the league's 32.

Thu, Nov 12 · 7:00 PM ETESPN+, MINNHL

Wild

13-3-4

59%

Maple Leafs

8-10-2

41%

Pick MINLeanPre-line forecast

Sat, Nov 14 · 7:00 PM ETNHL Net

Oilers

13-3-3

54%

Maple Leafs

8-10-2

46%

Pick EDMToss-upPre-line forecast

Tue, Nov 17 · 7:30 PM ETTNT

Maple Leafs

8-10-2

53%

Blackhawks

4-13-1

47%

Pick TORToss-upPre-line forecast

Thu, Nov 19 · 7:00 PM ETESPN+, ABTV

Kings

5-9-2

44%

Maple Leafs

8-10-2

56%

Pick TORLeanPre-line forecast

Sat, Nov 21 · 7:00 PM ETESPN+, CBJNHL

Blue Jackets

7-9-0

46%

Maple Leafs

8-10-2

54%

Pick TORToss-upPre-line forecast

Mon, Nov 23 · 7:30 PM ETESPN+, MSGSN

Maple Leafs

8-10-2

45%

Islanders

7-6-4

55%

Pick NYIToss-upPre-line forecast

Players

Who's been playing, busiest first. Each has projections, prop lines and recent games against the line.

Rating history

Elo over the last two seasons. The dashed line is league average.

Maple Leafs

Against the line

This season, against each game's closing spread and total.

Puck line: 9–10
Last 10: 6–4
As the favorite: 2–8
As the underdog: 7–2
Overs–unders: 11–8
Overs–unders, last 10: 6–4

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Recent results

Last ten games and whether the forecast hit.

Injury report

Current ESPN report, with what the model subtracts for their next game.

Morgan Rielly D
Out
Rielly (lower body) has been deemed day-to-day and will not play in Tuesday's home clash against the Avalanche, per David Alter of The Hockey News.
Colton Sissons C
Out
out
Kirill Marchenko RW
Injured Reserve
ir
Miles Wood LW
Injured Reserve
Wood (undisclosed) was transferred to long-term injured reserve Wednesday, David Alter of The Hockey News reports.
Nick Blankenburg D
Injured Reserve
Blankenburg (undisclosed) was placed on injured reserve by the Maple Leafs on Friday, David Alter of The Hockey News reports.
Marshall Rifai D
Injured Reserve
ir
Max Domi C
Injured Reserve
Domi (back) was transferred from the non-roster list to long-term injured reserve Wednesday, per PuckPedia.
Cade Webber D
Injured Reserve
ir-nr
Elvis Merzlikins G
Injured Reserve
Merzlikins is expected to miss 4-6 months to begin the 2026-27 regular season while recovering from a shoulder injury, per Luke Fox of Sportsnet.
William Villeneuve D
Injured Reserve
ir-nr