Toronto Maple Leafs at Columbus Blue Jackets, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CBJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Maple Leafs- Jack RoslovicGoals1
- Morgan RiellyAssists3
- Jack RoslovicPoints3
Blue Jackets- Charlie CoyleGoals1
- Emil AndraeAssists1
- Charlie CoylePoints1
Scoring summary
- P316:58Marshall Rifai Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Morgan Rielly (7), Jack Roslovic (5)6–2
- P34:13Charlie Coyle Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Cole Sillinger (3), Emil Andrae (2)5–2
- P212:03Jack Roslovic Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: Morgan Rielly (6), Easton Cowan (6)5–1
- P26:48Easton Cowan Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Oliver Ekman-Larsson (1)4–1
- P23:12Auston Matthews Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Jack Roslovic (4), Easton Cowan (5)3–1
- P22:26William Nylander Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Morgan Rielly (5), Colton Sissons (3)2–1
- P18:16Kirill Marchenko Goal (5) Deflected, assists: Auston Matthews (10), William Nylander (9)1–1
- P12:38Jake Christiansen Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Dmitri Voronkov (2), Valeri Nichushkin (3)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P12:38Jake Christiansen Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Dmitri Voronkov (2), Valeri Nichushkin (3)TOR 0 – 1 CBJ · CBJ 59% → 73% +14CBJ 59% → 73%+14 pts
- P18:16Kirill Marchenko Goal (5) Deflected, assists: Auston Matthews (10), William Nylander (9)TOR 1 – 1 CBJ · TOR 27% → 41% +14TOR 27% → 41%+14 pts
- P22:26William Nylander Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Morgan Rielly (5), Colton Sissons (3)TOR 2 – 1 CBJ · TOR 43% → 61% +18TOR 43% → 61%+18 pts
- P23:12Auston Matthews Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Jack Roslovic (4), Easton Cowan (5)TOR 3 – 1 CBJ · TOR 61% → 77% +16TOR 61% → 77%+16 pts
- P26:48Easton Cowan Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Oliver Ekman-Larsson (1)TOR 4 – 1 CBJ · TOR 79% → 90% +11TOR 79% → 90%+11 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Blue Jackets 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- CBJ 59%
- ML TOR +136 / CBJ -162
- Pre-line forecast
- CBJ 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CBJ 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.3 pts
- CBJ: Elo 63.6%, market 59.3%
- Fair odds
- CBJ -146
- TOR +146 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 3.0 – 3.5 CBJ
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | CBJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1470 | 1494 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | TOR on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +3 | +7 | TOR: Anthony Stolarz: team allows 0.08 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈42 weighted starts) · CBJ: Jet Greaves: team allows 0.18 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈39 weighted starts) |
| Injuries | −3 | — | Key absences: John Tavares |
| Elo ratings | CBJ +97 Elo | CBJ 63.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CBJ 63.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CBJ 63.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CBJ 59.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| TOR | Stat | CBJ |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 323.2 | Goals scored | 2.625th of 32 |
| 21st of 323.3 | Goals allowed | 3.320th of 32 |
| 16th of 32−0.1 | Margin | −0.725th of 32 |
| 18th of 3249.1% | Shot share | 47.8%23rd of 32 |
| 16th of 3289.5% | Save percentage | 89.4%17th of 32 |
| 15th of 321–2 | Road vs home | 3–212th of 32 |
| 12th of 321510 | Opponent Elo | 15127th of 32 |
| 27th of 321470 | Elo rating | 149517th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  CBJ |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 4–6 | 2–5 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 2–5 |
| Favorite | 1–6 | 0–3 |
| Underdog | 3–0 | 2–2 |
| Overs–unders | 5–5 | 3–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 3–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 3–6 CBJ in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 9.