Pittsburgh Penguins at Columbus Blue Jackets, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CBJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Penguins- Evgeni MalkinGoals1
- Erik KarlssonAssists1
- Evgeni MalkinPoints1
Blue Jackets- Damon SeversonGoals1
- Cole SillingerAssists2
- Damon SeversonPoints2
Scoring summary
- SO0:00Kent Johnson Goal Snap Shot0–1
- P33:19Evgeni Malkin Goal (3) Deflected, assists: Erik Karlsson (5)2–2
- P214:30Bryan Rust Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Samuel Girard (4)1–2
- P211:40Mathieu Olivier Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Damon Severson (1), Cole Sillinger (2)0–2
- P110:52Damon Severson Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Zach Werenski (3), Cole Sillinger (1)0–1
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P110:52Damon Severson Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Zach Werenski (3), Cole Sillinger (1)PIT 0 – 1 CBJ · CBJ 50% → 66% +16CBJ 50% → 66%+16 pts
- P211:40Mathieu Olivier Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Damon Severson (1), Cole Sillinger (2)PIT 0 – 2 CBJ · CBJ 70% → 86% +15CBJ 70% → 86%+15 pts
- P214:30Bryan Rust Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Samuel Girard (4)PIT 1 – 2 CBJ · PIT 13% → 29% +16PIT 13% → 29%+16 pts
- P33:19Evgeni Malkin Goal (3) Deflected, assists: Erik Karlsson (5)PIT 2 – 2 CBJ · PIT 24% → 50% +26PIT 24% → 50%+26 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blue Jackets 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- CBJ 50%
- ML PIT -108 / CBJ -112
- Pre-line forecast
- CBJ 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CBJ 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.4 pts
- CBJ: Elo 52.8%, market 50.4%
- Fair odds
- CBJ -102
- PIT +102 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 3.2 – 3.3 CBJ
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | CBJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1505 | 1501 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −3 | −15 | PIT: Sergei Murashov: team allows 0.07 more goals than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) · CBJ: Cam Talbot: team allows 0.36 more goals than with its usual starter (≈46 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CBJ +20 Elo | CBJ 52.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CBJ 54.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CBJ 54.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CBJ 50.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2025-26) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| PIT | Stat | CBJ |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 323.6 | Goals scored | 3.116th of 32 |
| 24th of 323.3 | Goals allowed | 3.116th of 32 |
| 10th of 32+0.3 | Margin | 0.016th of 32 |
| 11th of 3251.1% | Shot share | 50.5%13th of 32 |
| 24th of 3289.1% | Save percentage | 89.9%12th of 32 |
| 16th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 2–827th of 32 |
| 9th of 3221–19 | Road vs home | 20–2121st of 32 |
| 10th of 321502 | Opponent Elo | 15037th of 32 |
| 15th of 321505 | Elo rating | 150116th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025-26) |  PIT |  CBJ |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 49–39 | 42–40 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 13–23 | 10–24 |
| Underdog | 36–16 | 32–16 |
| Overs–unders | 50–38 | 39–43 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PIT 6–5 CBJ in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 11.