Columbus Blue Jackets at Pittsburgh Penguins, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PIT; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jackets- Danton HeinenGoals1
- Brendan GaunceAssists1
- Danton HeinenPoints1
Penguins- Sidney CrosbyGoals1
- Sidney CrosbyAssists1
- Sidney CrosbyPoints2
Scoring summary
- SO0:00Charlie Coyle Goal Wrist Shot2–1
- SO0:00Egor Chinakhov Goal Wrist Shot2–1
- SO0:00Kent Johnson Goal Backhand2–1
- P318:59Sidney Crosby Goal (26) Tip-In, assists: Kris Letang (22), Evgeni Malkin (25)3–3
- P217:38Danton Heinen Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Erik Gudbranson (1), Egor Zamula (2)3–2
- P27:32Kirill Marchenko Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: none2–2
- P117:52Rickard Rakell Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Sidney Crosby (27)1–2
- P19:59Connor Clifton Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Thomas Novak (16)1–1
- P12:42Zach Aston-Reese Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Zach Werenski (34), Brendan Gaunce (4)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P19:59Connor Clifton Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Thomas Novak (16)CBJ 1 – 1 PIT · PIT 36% → 52% +16PIT 36% → 52%+16 pts
- P117:52Rickard Rakell Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Sidney Crosby (27)CBJ 1 – 2 PIT · PIT 51% → 68% +17PIT 51% → 68%+17 pts
- P27:32Kirill Marchenko Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: noneCBJ 2 – 2 PIT · CBJ 30% → 49% +19CBJ 30% → 49%+19 pts
- P217:38Danton Heinen Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Erik Gudbranson (1), Egor Zamula (2)CBJ 3 – 2 PIT · CBJ 49% → 72% +23CBJ 49% → 72%+23 pts
- P318:59Sidney Crosby Goal (26) Tip-In, assists: Kris Letang (22), Evgeni Malkin (25)CBJ 3 – 3 PIT · PIT <1% → 50% +50PIT <1% → 50%+50 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Penguins 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- PIT 52%
- ML CBJ -102 / PIT -118
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.4 pts
- PIT: Elo 57.1%, market 51.7%
- Fair odds
- PIT -107
- CBJ +107 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CBJ 3.2 – 3.3 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CBJ | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1485 | 1484 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −19 | −3 | CBJ: Elvis Merzlikins: team allows 0.48 more goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) · PIT: Arturs Silovs: team allows 0.08 more goals than with its usual starter (≈29 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PIT +50 Elo | PIT 57.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 54.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 54.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PIT 51.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CBJ | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 323.1 | Goals scored | 3.214th of 32 |
| 27th of 323.3 | Goals allowed | 3.012th of 32 |
| 22nd of 32−0.3 | Margin | +0.211th of 32 |
| 17th of 3249.8% | Shot share | 51.0%13th of 32 |
| 15th of 3289.9% | Save percentage | 89.8%16th of 32 |
| 13th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 32 |
| 27th of 3210–15 | Road vs home | 10–1328th of 32 |
| 6th of 321504 | Opponent Elo | 149529th of 32 |
| 20th of 321485 | Elo rating | 148421st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CBJ |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 24–23 | 28–18 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 4–12 | 6–12 |
| Underdog | 20–11 | 22–6 |
| Overs–unders | 24–23 | 23–23 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CBJ 4–6 PIT in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 10.