Pittsburgh Penguins at Columbus Blue Jackets, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CBJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Penguins
Blue Jackets- Dmitri VoronkovGoals1
- Sean MonahanAssists2
- Dmitri VoronkovPoints2
Scoring summary
- P315:32Cole Sillinger Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Ivan Provorov (4), Justin Danforth (5)2–6
- P39:49Damon Severson Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Sean Monahan (7), Dmitri Voronkov (1)2–5
- P31:56Dmitri Voronkov Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Kirill Marchenko (10), Sean Monahan (6)2–4
- P216:27Mathieu Olivier Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Zach Werenski (8), Dante Fabbro (1)2–3
- P212:06Michael Bunting Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Anthony Beauvillier (2), Drew O'Connor (2)2–2
- P111:51Anthony Beauvillier Goal (6) Tip-In, assists: Sidney Crosby (12)1–2
- P18:39Zach Werenski Goal (4) Slap Shot, assists: Yegor Chinakhov (7), Adam Fantilli (5)0–2
- P12:20Zachary Aston-Reese Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: Jake Christiansen (5), Kevin Labanc (8)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P12:20Zachary Aston-Reese Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: Jake Christiansen (5), Kevin Labanc (8)PIT 0 – 1 CBJ · CBJ 47% → 62% +15CBJ 47% → 62%+15 pts
- P111:51Anthony Beauvillier Goal (6) Tip-In, assists: Sidney Crosby (12)PIT 1 – 2 CBJ · PIT 23% → 37% +14PIT 23% → 37%+14 pts
- P212:06Michael Bunting Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Anthony Beauvillier (2), Drew O'Connor (2)PIT 2 – 2 CBJ · PIT 32% → 52% +21PIT 32% → 52%+21 pts
- P216:27Mathieu Olivier Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Zach Werenski (8), Dante Fabbro (1)PIT 2 – 3 CBJ · CBJ 48% → 70% +22CBJ 48% → 70%+22 pts
- P31:56Dmitri Voronkov Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Kirill Marchenko (10), Sean Monahan (6)PIT 2 – 4 CBJ · CBJ 73% → 90% +17CBJ 73% → 90%+17 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Penguins 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- PIT 53%
- ML PIT -125 / CBJ +105
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 48%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.6 pts
- PIT: Elo 49.6%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- PIT -114
- CBJ +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 3.3 – 3.2 CBJ
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | CBJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1481 | 1450 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | 0 | −1 | PIT: Tristan Jarry: team allows 0.00 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈31 weighted starts) · CBJ: Elvis Merzlikins: team allows 0.03 more goals than with its usual starter (≈30 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CBJ +3 Elo | CBJ 50.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CBJ 52.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CBJ 52.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PIT 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| PIT | Stat | CBJ |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 322.7 | Goals scored | 3.116th of 32 |
| 31st of 323.9 | Goals allowed | 3.628th of 32 |
| 31st of 32−1.2 | Margin | −0.522nd of 32 |
| 18th of 3249.3% | Shot share | 52.2%7th of 32 |
| 27th of 3288.7% | Save percentage | 88.2%30th of 32 |
| 25th of 323–7 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 32 |
| 26th of 323–7 | Road vs home | 4–313th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PIT |  CBJ |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 7–11 | 8–7 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 2–3 | 0–1 |
| Underdog | 5–8 | 8–6 |
| Overs–unders | 9–9 | 10–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PIT 3–1 CBJ in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.