Columbus Blue Jackets at Anaheim Ducks, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ANA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jackets- Kirill MarchenkoGoals1
- Kirill MarchenkoAssists1
- Kirill MarchenkoPoints2
Ducks- Isac LundestromGoals1
- Frank VatranoAssists1
- Isac LundestromPoints1
Scoring summary
- P318:20Isac Lundestrom Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Frank Vatrano (4), Brock McGinn (3)2–4
- P316:57Kirill Marchenko Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: none2–3
- P310:20Leo Carlsson Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Brian Dumoulin (3), Ryan Strome (4)1–3
- P24:22Jackson LaCombe Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Radko Gudas (2), Troy Terry (6)1–2
- P116:16Yegor Chinakhov Goal (4) Slap Shot, assists: Zach Werenski (7), Kirill Marchenko (9)1–1
- P13:13Brett Leason Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Cutter Gauthier (5), Ross Johnston (2)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P13:13Brett Leason Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Cutter Gauthier (5), Ross Johnston (2)CBJ 0 – 1 ANA · ANA 50% → 65% +15ANA 50% → 65%+15 pts
- P116:16Yegor Chinakhov Goal (4) Slap Shot, assists: Zach Werenski (7), Kirill Marchenko (9)CBJ 1 – 1 ANA · CBJ 33% → 50% +17CBJ 33% → 50%+17 pts
- P24:22Jackson LaCombe Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Radko Gudas (2), Troy Terry (6)CBJ 1 – 2 ANA · ANA 50% → 68% +18ANA 50% → 68%+18 pts
- P310:20Leo Carlsson Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Brian Dumoulin (3), Ryan Strome (4)CBJ 1 – 3 ANA · ANA 82% → 97% +15ANA 82% → 97%+15 pts
- P316:57Kirill Marchenko Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: noneCBJ 2 – 3 ANA · CBJ <1% → 5% +5CBJ <1% → 5%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Ducks 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- ANA 50%
- ML CBJ -110 / ANA -110
- Pre-line forecast
- ANA 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ANA 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.4 pts
- ANA: Elo 52.4%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- ANA -100
- CBJ -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CBJ 3.3 – 3.3 ANA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CBJ | ANA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1457 | 1422 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | CBJ on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −4 | −17 | CBJ: Daniil Tarasov: team allows 0.09 more goals than with its usual starter (≈22 weighted starts) · ANA: John Gibson: team allows 0.43 more goals than with its usual starter (≈29 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ANA +17 Elo | ANA 52.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ANA 66.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ANA 63.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ANA 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CBJ | Stat | ANA |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 323.2 | Goals scored | 2.132nd of 32 |
| 26th of 323.5 | Goals allowed | 3.218th of 32 |
| 16th of 32−0.2 | Margin | −1.130th of 32 |
| 13th of 3251.5% | Shot share | 44.3%30th of 32 |
| 30th of 3288.1% | Save percentage | 91.4%6th of 32 |
| 20th of 324–6 | Last 10 | 2–831st of 32 |
| 30th of 321–5 | Road vs home | 2–427th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CBJ |  ANA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 8–5 | 7–6 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 0–1 | 2–1 |
| Underdog | 8–4 | 5–5 |
| Overs–unders | 9–4 | 4–9 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CBJ 1–1 ANA in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 2.